The Playoff Hunt - form analysis.

York only managed their win last night against Torquay through an own goal. I think they'll hit a stumbling block at some point. Ideally we needed 3/4 points from our last 2 games yet we managed only 1 and criminally dropped 5 from winning positions - that's really out of sync with the rest of the season. Some are citing Lewi as a reason for the decline, and him being out is a blow, but it's the defensive side of the team that's not holding on to the advantage twice set up by Reid now.

Fleetwood Town:
Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 defeats (2.0 pts per game)
Next 5: Morecambe (H), Cheltenham (A), Wycombe (H), Southend (H), Chesterfield (A).

Burton Albion:
Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses. (1.6 pts per game)
Next 5: Northampton (A), Hartlepool (H), Newport (A), Chesterfield (H), Southend (A).

Oxford United
Last 5: 1 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses. (0.6 pts per game)
Next 5: Plymouth (A), York (H), Scunthorpe (A), Accrington (H), Northampton (A).

Plymouth Argyle:
Last 5: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses. (0.8 pts per game)
Next 6: Newport (A), Oxford (H), Bury (A), Wimbledon (H), Hartlepool (H), Portsmouth (A).

Southend United:
Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses. (2.2 pts per game)  
Next 5: Wimbledon (H), Rochdale (A), Accrington (H), Fleetwood (A), Burton (H).

York City:
Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses. (2.2 pts per game)
Next 5: Accrington (H), Oxford (A), Bury (H), Newport (H), Scunthorpe (A).


Table prediction based on last 10 games:

---------------------------
Fleetwood Town P46  Pts 78
Burton Albion     P46  Pts 76
Southend Utd    P46  Pts 73
York City           P46  Pts 71
---------------------------
Oxford United    P46 Pts 62
Plymouth Argyle P45  Pts 58





Last 5/Next 5 is a bit more severe than last 10/next 10.

But it is clear to see that Argyle and Oxford have to dig deep and find some form soon to resurrect a playoff push.

Absolutely must win for Argyle - anything less and it is over.

It all goes back to that dropped win at Accrington and the second half shambles v Exeter - why, why, why, why, WHY!!!?

I've got the following:

York 71
Southend 69
Oxford 65 (dreadful run-in and form)

Argyle - well we need 70 given the goal difference. 5 out of 6. It's a very slim chance and anything less than 3 from the next 2 means we're out.

Having said that should we pull out a win tomorrow then Oxford becomes massive. Win that and you're suddenly looking at 4 winnable games.....caveated with the fact that in this dog shite division all games are winnable.

i think weve blown it now but will be a plastic glory hunter should we make the playoffs   

Look at the Oxford and Southend run ins.

We have got a great chance of clawing back some points here.

Oxford in free fall, however, they play us - the stop the rot oppo specialists- its saturday that will finish the season. imo

"They think it's all over" and it may be tonight!

Of course we could win and be only 2pts off the mighty York!

akagreengull wrote:

Of course we could win and be only 2pts off the mighty York!

After Oxford United, Argyle have an easy-ish run in compared to those teams above. Those four games are winnable. If the team really do fancy their chances, then one could see them hitting form in those crucial fixtures.

York City could easily lose form and go on a major wobble, like Argyle, Southend united and most importantly, Oxford United have recently..

D day. Given the points difference and the fact that Oxford and York play each other plus Sarfend are at Rochdale then three points is a must. Still think the points requirement might be as low as 67.

The problem is if we get to the play-offs....what damn team will turn up......if it's the team that played against Exeter....then lets forget it.....it's disappointing enough at present....without the agony of not turning up in a play-off match.....it's like turning the knife one more time in the wound.....no thank you....lets plan for next season.....and cut out the deadwood in readiness for a serious challenge from the BEGINNING of the season...not half-way through.

I agree with you Zyphe.

Dick Trickle wrote:

D day. Given the points difference and the fact that Oxford and York play each other plus Sarfend are at Rochdale then three points is a must. Still think the points requirement might be as low as 67.

Sheridan giving the teamtalk.

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The Argyle team leading out to battle.

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Sheridan giving the team talk before the Oxford game last Saturday, I fear our playoff chances died with that pathetic display.

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zyph wrote:

The problem is if we get to the play-offs....what damn team will turn up......if it's the team that played against Exeter....then lets forget it.....it's disappointing enough at present....without the agony of not turning up in a play-off match.....it's like turning the knife one more time in the wound.....no thank you....lets plan for next season.....and cut out the deadwood in readiness for a serious challenge from the BEGINNING of the season...not half-way through.

You can't tell me you wouldn't take promotion if it was offered though, surely?

GreenSam wrote:

zyph wrote:

The problem is if we get to the play-offs....what damn team will turn up......if it's the team that played against Exeter....then lets forget it.....it's disappointing enough at present....without the agony of not turning up in a play-off match.....it's like turning the knife one more time in the wound.....no thank you....lets plan for next season.....and cut out the deadwood in readiness for a serious challenge from the BEGINNING of the season...not half-way through.

You can't tell me you wouldn't take promotion if it was offered though, surely?

Mental isn't it?

Surely you give everything and hope until there it's impossible.

GreenSam wrote:

zyph wrote:

The problem is if we get to the play-offs....what damn team will turn up......if it's the team that played against Exeter....then lets forget it.....it's disappointing enough at present....without the agony of not turning up in a play-off match.....it's like turning the knife one more time in the wound.....no thank you....lets plan for next season.....and cut out the deadwood in readiness for a serious challenge from the BEGINNING of the season...not half-way through.

You can't tell me you wouldn't take promotion if it was offered though, surely?

It's only the chance through the play-offs that is on offer...along way still from promotion.

Well the man himself has come out after his team was outplayed by the mighty Bury. Sheridan said (somewhat frustrated) "the season is over", well ok John that is obvious, but he made a pledge that he would build a promotion chasing team next season and WILL bring in new players and make some hard decisions.
Ok John go for it, but I would'nt hold your breath that the reluctant bidder and a board that places footballing ambition behind retail development will empty their pockets for you.
Just one point, Sheridan has now got the tactics and team wrong for the last two games,so it's all well and good blaming the players for bottling it since we hit 7th place, but you did'nt own it either fot yesterdays drubbing.

I like Shez but he has never come up with a plan B.

Les Miserable wrote:

Sheridan giving the team talk before the Oxford game last Saturday, I fear our playoff chances died with that pathetic display.

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Is that Trotman bottom right?

Sheridan rallying his side for the Wimbledon game.

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