The Playoff Hunt - form analysis.

Wotton's return and the subsequent clean sheets are the stand out fact to me. Even more so considering McCormick's injury.
Not the greatest footballer in Plymouth or anywhere else, but he allows others like Young to take the game forward, has great positional sense and understands what cover the CBs need to feel comfortable ...unlike Jonah and his lost legs, who understood nothing but how to try and forge a new career.

Chesterfield 0 Portsmouth 0

What would be the better result for us tonight


Newport v Fleetwood  I would like a draw, I change the result after studying the league to a Newport win

Draw for me.

Draw or Newport win.

A Newport win as it will keep us in touch with Fleetwood.

Draw preferably, Newport second choice.

HT it no score

0-0   85 mins

Ideal result for us. Newport continuing to struggle, but grinding others down too.

0-0 FT

Newport only charged a £5 for the Fleetwoon game last night

Quote
Fleetwood for a Fiver

Newport County AFC can confirm that tickets for the game against Fleetwood Town FC on Tuesday 4th March 2014 is £5 in all areas of the ground (excluding hospitality).

Those fans who have already purchased tickets for this game at the original prices will be entitled to reclaim the difference by contacting the ticket office at Rodney Parade either in person or by calling 01633 670690 NO LATER THAN 5:00pm on Tuesday 4th March 2014.

Fans who have purchased tickets at the original prices will NOT be eligible to claim their reduction AFTER 5:00pm on Tuesday 4th March 2014

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Burton Albion:
Last 10: 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses. (1.4 pts per game)
Next 10: Wimbledon (H), Scunthorpe (A), Wycombe (H), York (A), Plymouth (H), Northampton (A), Hartlepool (H), Newport (A), Chesterfield (H), Southend (A).

Fleetwood Town:
Last 10: 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats (1.1 pts per game)
Next 10: Portsmouth (H), Exeter (A), Bristol Rovers (H), Rochdale (H), Oxford (A), Morecambe (H), Cheltenham (A), Wycombe (H), Southend (H), Chesterfield (A).

Oxford United
Last 10: 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses. (1.1 pts per game)
Next 10: Chesterfield (A), Hartlepool (H), Southend (A), Dagenham and Redbridge (A), Fleetwood (H), Plymouth (A), York (H), Scunthorpe (A), Accrington (H), Northampton (A).

Southend United:
Last 10: 0 win, 6 draws, 4 losses. (0.6 pts per game)  RELEGATION FORM
Next 10: Bury (H), Bristol Rovers (A), Oxford (H), Torquay (H), Cheltenham (A), Wimbledon (H), Rochdale (A), Accrington (H), Fleetwood (A), Burton (H).

Plymouth Argyle:
Last 10: 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses. (1.7 pts per game)
Next 10: Scunthorpe (H), Chesterfield (H), Accrington (A), Exeter (H), Burton (A), Newport (A), Oxford (H), Bury (A), Hartlepool (H), Portsmouth (A).

York:
Last 10: 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses. (1.8 pts per game)
Next 10: Wycombe (H), Portsmouth (A), Torquay (H), Burton (H), Rochdale (A), Accrington (H), Oxford (A), Bury (H), Newport (H), Scunthorpe (A).


Table prediction based on last 10 games:

---------------------------
Burton Albion     P46  Pts 74
Fleetwood Town P46  Pts 69
Plymouth Argyle P45  Pts 68
Oxford United   P46 Pts 67
---------------------------
York City        P 46  Pts 67
Southend United P46  Pts 57



Strange how this table changes practically every two games.

I predicted Newport were in relegation form after doing this, and now they have practically dropped out of playoff contention - unless they somehow manage to win 7 or 8 out of their last 12. They must seriously be focusing on staying up now, rather than looking to get promoted.

Southend are the latest team to hit crisis. 0 wins in 10 now, 0.6 pts per game = relegation form. Unlike Newport, they are lucky to have enough points on board to stay up. What Phil Brown is trying to inspire them is anybody's guess, but it has been a monumental slide from automatic contention to now a desperate struggle to cling on to the last playoff place, which now looks beyond them.

Argyle and York are the current power teams. Both teams have 5 wins in the last 7; Argyle have picked up 15 points from a possible 21, York have picked up 17 points from a possible 21. (Meanwhile Southend have taken 4 points in that period.)


So as it stands, it's a 3 way battle for 7th spot between Argyle, Southend and York City. But it is looking like Southend don't have the heart for the battle. Meanwhile Oxford and Fleetwood look like they have a spot of dodgy form in them, which could put 6th spot under question.

Could be a very interesting run in. WAR ARGYLE!!

People were saying the gap between us and play offs after our great Xmas run was too large. I wasn't sure if we'd be the team to do it, but I did say that the top 7 at that point would not be the same top 7 at the end of the season. January to May was a long time to make up that difference and we've done it in only 2 months!

spowell92 wrote:

People were saying the gap between us and play offs after our great Xmas run was too large. I wasn't sure if we'd be the team to do it, but I did say that the top 7 at that point would not be the same top 7 at the end of the season. January to May was a long time to make up that difference and we've done it in only 2 months!

It is quite incredible.

Sir Francis Drake on here said it was possible, but just too large to be realistic - and as you say, we have caught the playoff pack, with a game in hand and 10 games to spare.

Since the Christmas period, beginning with 21 Dec, Argyle have won 8, drawn 4 and lost 3 in the league (and run Port Vale ragged in two cup ties to boot). That is strong automatic promotion form that would border on winning the league over the course of a 46 game campaign.

Part of that is the implosion of Newport and Southend. But the fact is, the 70 point mark is enough for playoff contention - Bradford got promoted via Wembley on 69 points last season, Stevenage went up with 69 in 10-11 (Torquay qualifying in the playoffs with 68). And that is exactly the kind of form we are taking in to the last 10 to head towards 68 points.

So Argyle just need 18 points from 11 games now - or more or less, to maintain our current form. 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats ought to be enough. We just can't afford any slips ups now, or any more stale, disinterested performances.

Quote :

Plymouth Argyle:
Last 10: 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses. (1.7 pts per game)
Next 10: Scunthorpe (H), Chesterfield (H), Accrington (A), Exeter (H), Burton (A), Newport (A), Oxford (H), Bury (A), Wimbledon (H), Hartlepool (H), Portsmouth (A).

Wins: Accrington, Exeter, Newport, Hartlepool, Bury, Wimbledon.
Draws: Scunthorpe, Chesterfield, Burton, Oxford, Portsmouth.

Obviously the squad will be trying to win each and every game, but if we had this broader strategy, we are easily capable of these results. And we can afford only 3 slip ups.

I wonder what Caolan Lavery has in his diary for the next two months?

6 wins needed then

Dane. wrote:

6 wins needed then

It all depends on whether Southend can sort out a u-turn in their form. Phil Brown has previous for absolutely bottling the second half of the season, which appears exactly what he is doing right now.

If not, can York and Hartlepool maintain their form to push us all the way?

ejh wrote:

Dane. wrote:

6 wins needed then

It all depends on whether Southend can sort out a u-turn in their form. Phil Brown has previous for absolutely bottling the second half of the season, which appears exactly what he is doing right now.

If not, can York and Hartlepool maintain their form to push us all the way?

Sheridan however seems to struggle with his start to the season, but finds form for the second half. Perhaps we should get Phil Brown in to start and let Sheridan take the reigns to finish off   

Fleetwood Town:
Last 10: 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats (1.3 pts per game)
Next 9: Exeter (A), Bristol Rovers (H), Rochdale (H), Oxford (A), Morecambe (H), Cheltenham (A), Wycombe (H), Southend (H), Chesterfield (A).

Burton Albion:
Last 10: 3 wins, 6 draws, 1 losses. (1.5 pts per game)
Next 9: Scunthorpe (A), Wycombe (H), York (A), Plymouth (H), Northampton (A), Hartlepool (H), Newport (A), Chesterfield (H), Southend (A).

Oxford United
Last 10: 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses. (1.0 pts per game)
Next 9: Chesterfield (A), Hartlepool (H), Southend (A), Dagenham and Redbridge (A), Fleetwood (H), Plymouth (A), York (H), Scunthorpe (A), Accrington (H), Northampton (A).

Plymouth Argyle:
Last 10: 6 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses. (1.9 pts per game)
Next 9: Accrington (A), Exeter (H), Burton (A), Newport (A), Oxford (H), Bury (A), Wimbledon (H), Hartlepool (H), Portsmouth (A).

Southend United:
Last 10: 0 win, 6 draws, 4 losses. (0.6 pts per game)  RELEGATION FORM
Next 9: Bristol Rovers (A), Oxford (H), Torquay (H), Cheltenham (A), Wimbledon (H), Rochdale (A), Accrington (H), Fleetwood (A), Burton (H).

York:
Last 10: 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses. (2.0 pts per game)
Next 9: Portsmouth (A), Torquay (H), Burton (H), Rochdale (A), Accrington (H), Oxford (A), Bury (H), Newport (H), Scunthorpe (A).


Table prediction based on last 10 games:

---------------------------
Burton Albion     P46  Pts 75
Fleetwood Town P46  Pts 72
Plymouth Argyle P45  Pts 71
York City        P 46  Pts 70
---------------------------
Oxford United   P46 Pts 66
Southend United P46  Pts 58




Whadda win! How great does our last 9 game run in look now without the gauntlet of Scunthorpe and Chesterfield? (look at Fleetwood's gruelling run in, btw).

Some interesting stats:
Southend haven't won in 11 games, and are currently plummeting to bottom of the league form.
Oxford haven't won in the last 6 games.
York are in dangerous form, with 4 straight wins, and title winning form in their last 10 games (with two straight forward fixtures on the horizon).

With Oxford's struggling form, and Fleetwood's tough run in, both Argyle and York could quite conceivably muscle some of the leaders in the playoff pack out into the wilderness with Southend and Newport.

Allez LES VERTS!!

Good post. Our run in, on paper, looks easier than the others. I am only worried about Burton away. I think we'll do it.

I agree, Slightly easier than Southend and York on paper, But football isn't p..........................

Fleetwood Town:
Last 10: 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats (1.5 pts per game)
Next 7:Rochdale (H), Oxford (A), Morecambe (H), Cheltenham (A), Wycombe (H), Southend (H), Chesterfield (A).

Burton Albion:
Last 10: 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses. (1.4 pts per game)
Next 7: York (A), Plymouth (H), Northampton (A), Hartlepool (H), Newport (A), Chesterfield (H), Southend (A).

Oxford United
Last 10: 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses. (0.9 pts per game) RELEGATION FORM
Next 7: Dagenham and Redbridge (A), Fleetwood (H), Plymouth (A), York (H), Scunthorpe (A), Accrington (H), Northampton (A).

Plymouth Argyle:
Last 10: 5 wins, 1 draws, 4 losses. (1.6 pts per game)
Next 7: Burton (A), Newport (A), Oxford (H), Bury (A), Wimbledon (H), Hartlepool (H), Portsmouth (A).

Southend United:
Last 10: 1 win, 6 draws, 3 losses. (0.9 pts per game)  RELEGATION FORM
Next 7: Torquay (H), Cheltenham (A), Wimbledon (H), Rochdale (A), Accrington (H), Fleetwood (A), Burton (H).

York City:
Last 10: 8 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses. (2.6 pts per game) TITLE WINNING FORM
Next 7: Burton (H), Rochdale (A), Accrington (H), Oxford (A), Bury (H), Newport (H), Scunthorpe (A).


Table prediction based on last 10 games:

---------------------------
York City         P46  Pts 76
Fleetwood Town P46  Pts 75
Burton Albion     P46  Pts 74
Oxford United   P46 Pts 65
---------------------------
Plymouth Argyle P46  Pts 65
Southend Utd P46  Pts 63



Not as much fun analysing this one!

York are in flying form with an astounding 8 wins and 2 draws in the last 10 matches. But their run in is tough with 4 of the current top 6 still to play, with 3 of them away.

Oxford and Southend are both in relegation form by the look of their last 10. Oxford have just 1 win in 8, and their new manager didn't do too well at Southend, giving Phil Brown his first win in months and months.

Fleetwood look solid enough to saunter over the line into the playoffs - with no challenge to mount for the top 3, but little danger of falling out of the top 7.

Argyle were in fine form, but the downturn appears to have coincided with the injury of Lewis Alessandra. We need a point from Burton away now at the absolute minimum, but you could say it is must win for psychological reasons.

If we do lose, it will take 4 wins from the last 6 to make it.

I think we'll need 5 wins from the last 7 and we must beat Oxford and Burton. We've made it hard for ourselves.

With 7 games to go we have 55 points and probably need at least 68 to hit a play-off spot

5W + any other 2
4W 1D 2L
3W 4D

We're up against it now.

Looks like we are in a mini league of 4 teams for the last 2 playoff places. Oxford and York occupy them at the moment with us and Southend trying to nick them. Stating the obvious but we have to better there resultls each game until the end of the season (whilst keeping half an eye over our shoulders at the Daggers and Newport)

spowell92 wrote:

I think we'll need 5 wins from the last 7 and we must beat Oxford and Burton. We've made it hard for ourselves.

I think you are right, but pray you are wrong.

York can't keep up their amazing form forever, or can they? I just hope a few of those decent sides, like Burton and Rochdale, really take them apart.

It remains to be seen whether Oxford have a managerial bounce on their disastrous form. Our home game v them could be all out 'must win', depending on York's form.

Southend won't get back into it, I will confidently predict. They are facing the same reality as us, but they have to start producing promotion form out of nowhere - with no confidence in the dressing room or on the terraces.

Argyle had the confidence, but squandered it. A 1-0 lead at Accrington, thrown away, a 1-0 win v Exeter, surrendered. We do the hard bit to get the lead, and then invite pressure.

No wonder Sheridan is fuming as we have made it so much more difficult than it needed to be.