The Playoff Hunt - form analysis.

Burton Albion
Last 10: W3 D5 L2 (1.4 pts per game)
Next 10: Torquay (A), Accrington (H), Oxford (A), Portsmouth (A), Wimbledon (H), Scunthorpe (A), Wycombe (H), York (A), Plymouth (H), Northampton (A)

Southend United

Last 10: W2 D6 L2 (1.2 pts per game)
Next 10: Northampton (A), Wycombe (H), Morecambe (A), Scunthorpe (A), Bury (H), Bristol Rovers (A), Oxford (H), Torquay (H), Cheltenham (A), Wimbledon (H)

Newport County

Last 10: W3 D2 L5 (1.1 pts per game)
Next 10: Wimbledon (H), Scunthorpe (H), Fleetwood (H), Mansfield (A), Morecambe (A), Exeter (H), Dagenham and Redbridge (H), Torquay (A), Bury (H), Portsmouth (H)

Plymouth Argyle
Last 10: W4 D4 L2 (1.6 pts per game)
Next 10: Fleetwood (A), Morecambe (H), Bristol Rovers (A), Wycombe (A), Scunthorpe (H), Chesterfield (H), Accrington (A), Exeter (H), Burton (A), Newport (A).



Going into it, we are the form team, and should the last ten game form repeat itself we will gain 4 points on Southend, 5 points on Newport.

Hypothetical table based on last 10 game form:

6) Burton Albion        P 42    PTS 66
7) Southend United   P 42    PTS 64
Plymouth Argyle    P 42    PTS 60
9) Newport County    P 42    PTS 57

It makes interesting reading. We can only afford 2 losses in the next 10 games and need 4 wins minimum, but 5 wins realistically. And hope other teams don't pick up their form.

Newport have 4 games in hand on us.

Newport have 4 games in hand over Hartlepool. We have two in hand over Hartlepool. Newport have 2 games in hand over us. But crucially they have a shredded cut up pitch, a severe lack of match fitness and the worst form in the top half.

That hypothetical table accounts for their games in hand.

This got suddenly interesting.

I said we'd need 4 but preferably 5 wins in the next 10, and that is a cracking start.

3-4 wins in the next 9 is definitely achievable.

Whilst we cruise on supposedly tough away days, like Cheltenham,  Oxford and Fleetwood - we mess up at home to teams like Accrington and Mansfield. I am not even sure what the winnable games in our run in are any more.

In terms of PPG we are absolutely blitzing Newport and Southend right now. Newport are currently going through form resembling a relegation battling side.

We've got seven games in March, Newport have to play nine. I can see that being a factor.

The home form really does concern me as the home fixtures we have are, on paper, very difficult; Scunny, Chesterfield, Oxford and that away trip to Burton. We've got City at home but I doubt City will bring many down (their season is probably over) so that isn't quite a crunch derby any longer.
It's impossible to predict - lose 4-0 against York and then, a week and a bit later, we've won two away.

One thing's for sure, it's good to have something interesting to play for.

This is miles better than the meh of aiming for 11th place.

Flip me, I haven't seen the other site this morning but if this site is bursting with positivity I'm guessing there's a few on PASOTI that have soiled themselves.

Dick Trickle wrote:

Flip me, I haven't seen the other site this morning but if this site is bursting with positivity I'm guessing there's a few on PASOTI that have soiled themselves.

TBF last night Czarcasm said that if we scored 5 he would get an erection. I don't think you'd see that on pasoti.

knecht wrote:

Dick Trickle wrote:

Flip me, I haven't seen the other site this morning but if this site is bursting with positivity I'm guessing there's a few on PASOTI that have soiled themselves.

TBF last night Czarcasm said that if we scored 5 he would get an erection. I don't think you'd see that on pasoti.

Unless PASOTI had a damn good telescope.

knecht wrote:

Dick Trickle wrote:

Flip me, I haven't seen the other site this morning but if this site is bursting with positivity I'm guessing there's a few on PASOTI that have soiled themselves.

TBF last night Czarcasm said that if we scored 5 he would get an erection. I don't think you'd see that on pasoti.

That's ambitious of him he needs at least 30 minutes for the tablet to kick in   

Some people are easily pleased and the bigger picture pales into temporary insignificance.

Don't allow me to spoil your fun.   

Morecambe (home), Bristol Rovers (away), Wycombe (away).

Our next three games.

zyph wrote:

knecht wrote:

Dick Trickle wrote:

Flip me, I haven't seen the other site this morning but if this site is bursting with positivity I'm guessing there's a few on PASOTI that have soiled themselves.

TBF last night Czarcasm said that if we scored 5 he would get an erection. I don't think you'd see that on pasoti.

Unless PASOTI had a damn good telescope.

No telescope needed sometimes. Click below for huge Cock.

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Burton: 1 win in last 6 games.
Southend: 0 wins in last 7 league games.
Newport: 1 win in last 9 league games.

Next fixtures:
Burton (Accrington, H)
PAFC (Morecambe, H)
Southend (Wycombe, H)
Newport (Scunthope, H)

Newport should lose to Scunny but the others all look winnable for the home teams.

Iggy, last night Northampton beat Southend and Newport lost at home to Wimbledon. We beat 6th place Fleetwood. I don't think people can predict anything in this league. It's still just 8 points between 8th and 22nd. Any one can beat any one in this league. Last season, 7th place was 69 points, Bradford (who went up). It's much closer this season but we have 12 games left and we're on 45 points. I can't see us getting to 69 points but I don't think (predicting the unpredictable, I know) that you'll need 69 points to get 7th place.

I don't really expect us to get a play off spot in all honesty but it could happen. In my heart, I'd love it as it's been too long since we did anything positive in the league and we do deserve something poaitive after years of disappointment but my head says 12th-15th.

hairy j wrote:

I don't think people can predict anything in this league. It's still just 8 points between 8th and 22nd. Any one can beat any one in this league.

I've no idea what will happen between now and the end of the season (just look at where I am in the prediction league!). The last 10 games could be very interesting.

A playoff place would be great after all the shit we've had to suffer over the past few years.

If we make the play-offs and do not win them it will almost be crueller than the last 2 years when we have enjoyed the worst league finishes in our history.

And the only answer to the question "why?" will be "home form".

I've lost count of the number of games that we have failed to win when they were there for the taking. Why is this? We have an immaculate pitch and a team that seems to perform well enough away from home but which freezes on home territory.

Maybe it's us fans who are at fault!

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

If we make the play-offs and do not win them it will almost be crueller than the last 2 years when we have enjoyed the worst league finishes in our history.

And the only answer to the question "why?" will be "home form".

I've lost count of the number of games that we have failed to win when they were there for the taking. Why is this? We have an immaculate pitch and a team that seems to perform well enough away from home but which freezes on home territory.

Maybe it's us fans who are at fault!

Our home form was actually in the top 6 or 7 of the whole league until Christmas. As was our away form pretty damn awful until Christmas.

The sudden change in fortunes both at home on the road since then has been very puzzling.

Some great stats emerging now.

Oxford - 1 win in last six games.
Fleetwood - 1 win in last seven games
Southend - 1 win in last ten games, not won in last 8.


Burton Albion:
Last 10: 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses. (1.4 pts per game)
Next 10: Oxford (A), Portsmouth (A), Wimbledon (H), Scunthorpe (A), Wycombe (H), York (A), Plymouth (H), Northampton (A), Hartlepool (H), Newport (A).

Oxford United
Last 10: 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses. (1.6 pts per game)
Next 10: Burton (H), Cheltenham H), Chesterfield (A), Hartlepool (H), Southend (A), Dagenham and Redbridge (A), Fleetwood (H), Southend (A), Plymouth (A), York (H).

Fleetwood:
Last 10: 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses. (1.5 pts per game)
Next 10: Newport (A), Torquay (A), Bury (A), Portsmouth (H), Exeter (A), Bristol Rovers (H), Rochdale (H), Oxford (A), Morecambe (H), Cheltenham (A).

Southend United:
Last 10: 1 win, 6 draws, 3 losses. (0.9 pts per game)
Next 10: Morecambe (A), Scunthorpe (A), Bury (H), Bristol Rovers (A), Oxford (H), Torquay (H), Cheltenham (A), Wimbledon (H), Rochdale (A), Accrington (H).


Plymouth Argyle:
Last 10: 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses. (1.8 pts per game)
Next 10: Bristol Rovers (A), Wycombe (A), Scunthorpe (H), Chesterfield (H), Accrington (A), Exeter (H), Burton (A), Newport (A), Oxford (H), Bury (A).

Newport County:
Last 10: 1 win, 3 draws, 6 losses. (0.6 pts per game)
Next 10:  Fleetwood (H), Mansfield (A), Morecambe (A), Exeter (H), Dagenham and Redbridge (H), Torquay (A), Bury (H), Portsmouth (H), Chesterfield (A), Plymouth (H).


Newport and Southend won't be anywhere near the playoffs with their relegation form unless they force a complete overhaul of form. Also when we face Newport around this time next month, they will have had to play two extra matches than the Argyle team - which may fatigue on their squad more than ours. 10 games in 32 days for them - a relentless average of a match every 3 days for the duration of a month. Mourinho wouldn't be happy managing them with that fixture schedule.

Table prediction based on last 10 games:

---------------------------
Oxford United     P44  Pts 71
Burton Albion      P44  Pts 70
Fleetwood Town P43  Pts 68
Plymouth Argyle  P43  Pts 66
---------------------------
Southend United P44  Pts 59
Newport County  P41  Pts 49


With Oxford, Newport and Burton still to play, we will have three cup finals in a row (5th April - 12th April).

But it is looking like an Argyle v Southend scrap for theat 7th spot. Argyle have the better form, Southend have the better run in.

Bite your nails time then !!..

We have just got to hope that those teams struggling at the moment do not hit form late on.

I think Hartlepool United and Newport County are still in with a chance, as difficult as it may seem. They both have a sniff and will try to achieve that aim.

There is a long way to go yet and we all know that situations can rapidly change. If there ever was a time when a team had to stand and be counted, then that time is now.

Having said that, i feel elated that Argyle have got themselves in to this position, and who would have thought that 2 months ago.

Oxford, Newport and Burton games will settle it, if we get a decent haul of points off them then we will deserve a playoff spot and have a decent chance of winning them. We have to match the better teams now, I am sure that we won't win them all, we will probably get turned over by a shit team or two but with the new look Wotton backed mid, Allesandro and Reid firing, Hourihane and Young playing well, Berry seems to have stepped up to the plate and Parsons looks a shoe in we have at last a decent squad. Don't forget we still have Banton who will come good IMO plus Marvelous lookin fit and Purrington and Harvey in the wings, I'm feeling quietly confident.
Hartlepool are going well, Southend and Newport to choke, monkey hangers are ones to watch.

I think it's the next 4 games that are make or break, if we can get 6 points from Rovers-Wycombe-Scunny-Chesterfield i think we'll make the playoffs, the games after that look a bit easier on paper and one looks a complete gimme, Excretia at home  . If we can continue to play with the confidence and freedom of the last 2 games we'll be OK and there's no reason why we shouldn't, nobody realistically expected us to reach the playoffs so i'm hoping the team adopts a nothing to lose/just go for it attitude.

COME ON BHEYS   

Iggy wrote:

Oxford, Newport and Burton games will settle it, if we get a decent haul of points off them then we will deserve a playoff spot and have a decent chance of winning them.

That's my hope, except for the final providing me with the enormous pleasure of seeing the Green army troop away from Wemberlee having put in a Yorkesque performance and getting butt foo'ed on national television.

I have been trying to tell you mugs how crap the standard is in this league is, well for years now, finally even your dimmer members like EJ are waking up to the possibilities just waiting for even a pretty shiite team.