A Decent Article In The Herald!

Tringreen wrote:

Peter Jones was rattling on about a united club on Saturday.

Manchester?

We have 56 pts from 36 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) or 80 (promotion) pts (probably) in total. That's another 16 or 24 points from the last 10 games.

Play-offs (1.6 pts/game)

6W + any other 4
5W 1D 4L
4W 4D 2L
3W 7D

or

Promotion (2.4 pts/game)

8W + any 2 other
7W 3D

Shrewsbury, currently in 3rd place, have 65 pts with 10 to play.

With our goal difference, I reckon 5 wins and 5 losses will do it. Which would leave us on 71 points.

Unless of course our losses are all heavy and screw up our goal difference. 73 imo would make it nigh on certain. There's no way you'll get 7 teams all on 74 points or upwards.

73 would secure it bar the shouting. I would be surprised if 72 didn't do the trick. My gut feeling is that 71 will do the trick.

I'd love to think we could aim for 4th or 5th rather than 6th or 7th. Without being picky, I'd be much happier if we had a narrow lead to defend with 10 minutes to go at Home Park, rather than (say) Southend or Wycombe.

We have 56 pts from 37 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) or 80 (promotion) pts (probably) in total. That's another 16 or 24 points from the last 9 games.

Play-offs (1.8 pts/game)

6W + any other 3
5W 1D 3L
4W 4D 1L


or


Promotion (2.7 pts/game)

8W + any 1 other


Wycombe, currently in 3rd place, have 68 pts with 9 to play. The best we can do is 83 points. 5 wins in 9 for them and automatic promotion will be impossible - but let's be serious here: that option has realistically, if not mathematically, gone.

I'm enjoying your mathematical updates after every game Francis

I wish I was.

But there it is and it is what it is.

No spin. No bullshit.

The only thing to argue about is whether the actual target is realistic or not and, so far, the promotion one is looking pretty close...

1.8 points per game incidentally would yield 83 points over a season.

To get a play-off spot we now need to show near automatic promotion form for the rest of the season.

If the points targets are right.

We have 57 pts from 38 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) or 80 (promotion) pts (probably) in total. That's another 15 or 2 points from the last 8 games.

Play-offs (1.9 pts/game)

5W + any other 3
4W 3D 1L


or


Promotion (2.9 pts/game)

8W


Wycombe, currently in 3rd place, have 68 pts with 9 to play. The best we can do is 81 points. 5 wins in 9 for them and automatic promotion will be impossible - but let's be serious here: that option has realistically, if not mathematically, gone.

It's getting close to us hoping that fewer than 72 points are needed.

We need to win a few games, sharpish.

While Sheridan thinks a 0-0 draw at home is a good point we have no chance of the play offs.

We have 60 pts from 39 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) or 80 (promotion) pts (probably) in total. That's another 12 or 20 points from the last 7 games.

Play-offs (1.7 pts/game)

4W + any other 3
3W 3D 1L


or


Promotion (2.9 pts/game)

7W


Luton, currently in 8th place, are 2 points behind us and have a worse GD which means they will need to gain 3 points on us in 7 games. That has to be a demanding target.

A play-off spot is ours to lose now.

It also looks as though Sam was right and that 72 points will be more than enough.

We'll see.

What a difference a week makes!

Good work Francis.

I've said for a long time that 70 might be enough and still think it probably will with our goal difference.

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

We have 60 pts from 39 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) or 80 (promotion) pts (probably) in total. That's another 12 or 20 points from the last 7 games.

Play-offs (1.7 pts/game)

4W + any other 3
3W 3D 1L


or


Promotion (2.9 pts/game)

7W


Luton, currently in 8th place, are 2 points behind us and have a worse GD which means they will need to gain 3 points on us in 7 games. That has to be a demanding target.

A play-off spot is ours to lose now.

It also looks as though Sam was right and that 72 points will be more than enough.

We'll see.

What a difference a week makes!

Luton have lost 8 of their last 9 - horrific form.

Stevenage and Northampton are the teams that will displace us if any.

We have 61 pts from 40 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) or 80 (promotion) pts (probably) in total. That's another 11 or 21 points from the last 6 games.

Play-offs (1.83 pts/game)

4W + any other 2
3W 2D 1L


or


Promotion (3.5 pts/game)

Automatic promotion may not yet be mathematically impossible but it isn't going to happen now.

Stevenage, currently in 8th place, are 2 points behind us and have a worse GD which means they will need to gain 3 points on us in 6 games. That target has become a little more demanding than it was last week.

A play-off spot is ours to lose now.

It also looks even more like Sam was right and that 72 points will be more than enough.

We'll see.

We've edged closer.

One point yesterday beats our total of 60pts that we achieved last year......when you consider that we have never ever won a match in this division this season after going behind (if my memory serves me right).....how many points on average have we given away with that statistic.

Have we blown it?

We have 61 pts from 41 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) (probably) in total. That's another 11 from the last 5 games.

Play-offs (2.2 pts/game - that would be 101 points over a whole season)

4W + any other 1
3W 2D

2 play-off spots to be grabbed by us, Exeter, Luton, Newport or Stevenage.

Squeaky bum time.

I fear it will come down to luck and other teams (obvs I know) but as we yo yo from play off spot to just outside it will depend when the wheel stops turning as much as our goal difference. On that premis, five games to go, we are outside now, so we go, in, out, in, out, IN! Am I grasping at straws?

Iggy wrote:

I fear it will come down to luck and other teams (obvs I know) but as we yo yo from play off spot to just outside it will depend when the wheel stops turning as much as our goal difference. On that premis, five games to go, we are outside now, so we go, in, out, in, out, IN! Am I grasping at straws?

If we need something going into the last game at Shrewsbury, we're fooked. On that premise, we need to nail three wins and a draw from the next four I reckon.

On paper (I know I know) that is well doable.

I have a feeling 70 points will do it. Wimbledon now have virtually nothing to play for, Mansfield are on a proper slide. The Tranmere home and Carlisle away games have slip-up written all over them.

I will venture that, in the most predictably Argyle way possible, we will lose to Wimbledon and beat Shrewsbury but will have lost out on a play-off spot in the penultimate game.

That said (and for the avoidance of all doubt; there are some peculiar people around), I would bloody love it if we got into the play-offs.

Given our goal difference and the fact that there are two spots up for grabs I reckon 70 would probably do it and 71 absolutely would.

I reckon 9 from the next 4 leaving us needing a point at the Shrews.

Sad that anyone on this site has to type this but for the avoidance of doubt I would love it if we went up via the play offs.

Dick Trickle wrote:

Given our goal difference and the fact that there are two spots up for grabs I reckon 70 would probably do it and 71 absolutely would.

I reckon 9 from the next 4 leaving us needing a point at the Shrews.

Sad that anyone on this site has to type this but for the avoidance of doubt I would love it if we went up via the play offs.

That could make all the difference. A "virtual" point!

#StripesAreBack

We have 64 pts from 42 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) (probably) in total. That's another 8 from the last 4 games.

Play-offs (2 pts/game)

3W + any other 1
2W 2D

2 play-off spots to be grabbed by us, Exeter, Luton, Newport or Stevenage. We have a 2 point cushion and by far the best goal difference.

Obviously our competitors have the same target. To get there Exeter and Luton need 11 points (4W), Newport need 10 points (3W, 1D) and Stevenage need 7 points (2W 1D or better).

The last 6 games have given Exeter 11 points, Stevenage 9, Us 8, Newport 8, Luton 3. In comparison Shrewsbury have 18, Bury 15, Burton 14, Southend 13, Wycombe 10.

The 72 point target looks almost certainly to be too high.

Still squeaky bum time but ours to lose again.

A win on Tuesday night and we'll have one foot in the play offs as I feel some of our competitors will drop points again. #tuesdayisfcukinmassive

It's "Nitty Gritty" time