A Decent Article In The Herald!

Never thought I'd hear myself say that

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So we have 49 pts from 31 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) or 80 (promotion) pts (probably) in total.

Play-offs

8W and any other 7 results
7W 2D 6L
6W 5D 4L
5W 8D 1L

or

Promotion

11W + any 4
10W 1D 4L
9W 4D 1L

Automatic promotion now looks highly unlikely but Dave Smith's team ended up W11 D2 L2 for their last 15 games... It can be done and it'll be well beyond exciting if it is!

They could have included the points needed for the title... 15 wins it is from here, probably.

So we have 52 pts from 30 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) or 80 (promotion) pts (probably) in total.

Play-offs (1.4 pts/game)

7W and any other 7 results
6W 2D 6L
5W 5D 4L

or

Promotion (1.75 pts/game)

10W + any 6
9W 1D 6L
8W 4D 4L
7W 7D 2L

The article fails to take notice of one important thing.

The amount of points for 7th place is not the relevant fact if you are looking at the amount of points needed to make the play-offs. If someone comes 7th with 78 points but 8th place only has 68 points, you would not require 78 points to come 7th. You would require 69. It just so happens that in that season, 7th place did get 78 points.

The relevant statistics are not the points totals acquired by the teams coming 3rd and 7th. The relevant statistics are the point totals acquired by the teams coming 4th and 8th plus one. Or, given our goal difference, plus none.

I think 70 points will secure 7th and 79 points will secure third.

I think that means we only need to get 18 more points from 14 more games to secure 7th. Something we should almost certainly do. We'd also only need 27 more points from 14 more games to get third. Not likely, but stranger things have happened.

We'll see for sure how many we need at the end of the season.

Personally I think it'll come down to who does best for the remainder of the season in the mini-league of competing teams.

And the more teams that stay involved then the lower the final tally will be.

If Sam is right then:

Play-offs (1.3 pts/game)

6 wins + any 8
5 W 3D 5L
4W 6D 2L

Promotion (1.9 pts/game)

9W + any 5
8W 3 D 2L

Lets go for the best W14 D0 L0

That's what we need for the title!

That Christmas period has cost us dear. We really could have won the bloody title and probably would have without that spell.

This Saturday,

Burton v Newport
Argyle v Bury
Wycombe v Stevenage

Games likes these have a massive bearing on success or failure, top teams taking points off each other.

Exactly.

That's why the using past tables to set a points target is such a good barometer for what we might need - the 6 pointers happen every season.

Automatics have two factors that will be equal in measure for them to be achievable, us winning points and Wycombe losing points, if Wycombe continue to slide after losing their couple of players then we should be aiming for third, next two matches out the way and we will have a pretty good idea of our fortunes.

We have 52 pts from 33 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) or 80 (promotion) pts (probably) in total. That's another 20 or 28 points from the last 13 games.

Play-offs (1.6 pts/game)

7W and any other 6 results
6W 2D 5L
5W 5D 3L
4W 8D 1L

or

Promotion (2.2 pts/game)

10W + any 3
9W 1D 3L
8W 4D 1L

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

So we have 49 pts from 31 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) or 80 (promotion) pts (probably) in total.

Play-offs

8W and any other 7 results
7W 2D 6L
6W 5D 4L
5W 8D 1L

or

Promotion

11W + any 4
10W 1D 4L
9W 4D 1L

Automatic promotion now looks highly unlikely but Dave Smith's team ended up W11 D2 L2 for their last 15 games... It can be done and it'll be well beyond exciting if it is!

They could have included the points needed for the title... 15 wins it is from here, probably.

The one thing Dave Smith's team had for the run-in which won't be replicated here is a certain Lord Thomas of Tynan in on loan for the last two months of the season. His 10 goals in 9 games got the team over the line. Something like that won't happen now.

Lord Thomas Edward Tynan

Homeslice wrote:

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

So we have 49 pts from 31 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) or 80 (promotion) pts (probably) in total.

Play-offs

8W and any other 7 results
7W 2D 6L
6W 5D 4L
5W 8D 1L

or

Promotion

11W + any 4
10W 1D 4L
9W 4D 1L

Automatic promotion now looks highly unlikely but Dave Smith's team ended up W11 D2 L2 for their last 15 games... It can be done and it'll be well beyond exciting if it is!

They could have included the points needed for the title... 15 wins it is from here, probably.

The one thing Dave Smith's team had for the run-in which won't be replicated here is a certain Lord Thomas of Tynan in on loan for the last two months of the season. His 10 goals in 9 games got the team over the line. Something like that won't happen now.

Indeed. As well as Tommy, there was also Garry Nelson, Kevin Hodges, Kevin Summerfield, and Russell Coughlin, who scored 46 goals between them as midfielders in that season, which is what I keep banging on about as one of the main ingredients of a real promotion winning team.

As I recall the game that started that incredible run going was away at Bristol Rovers before Tynan came back. John (Kevin?) Godfrey (on loan from Orient at the time - and something of a forgotten hero) got the winner. From then on, Wigan apart, it was beer and sandwiches all the way to the champagne and pasties table.

I'm not for a moment predicting that that will (ever) happen again - just that you never know.

The future's not ours to see.

We have 52 pts from 34 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) or 80 (promotion) pts (probably) in total. That's another 20 or 28 points from the last 12 games.

Play-offs (1.7 pts/game)

7W and any other 5 results
6W 2D 4L
5W 5D 2L
4W 8D

or

Promotion (2.3 pts/game)

10W + any 2
9W 1D 2L
8W 4D

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It's still all to play for.

It doesn't feel like it right now.

But it is.

The Northampton game on Saturday is assuming "massive" proportion.

Highly unscientific, but for years, from January on I look at the GD at both ends of the table as an indicator for potential "goodness" or "crapness". On that basis we still have a chance.

Peter Jones was rattling on about a united club on Saturday. What he really wanted was more season ticket sales, more bucket rattling, more blind faith.

This odious regime, of which he is as much to blame as anyone, has done nothing to unite the fanbase. Many articulate, dedicated and visionary 'supporters' have been deliberately marginalised by those who profess to love the club but in reality, they love their position within the club more. It all starts at the top and until all opinions are welcomed at the club, it will continue to flounder.

Luton fans are united behind their club because they trust their leaders. Our leaders demand blind support. It doesn't and won't work Mr Jones, or should I say Iddlesleigh Green ?

Or the Nightfly.

We have 55 pts from 35 games. It says we need either 72 (play-offs) or 80 (promotion) pts (probably) in total. That's another 17 or 25 points from the last 11 games.

Play-offs (1.6 pts/game)

6W and any other 5 results
5W 5D 1L
4W 6D

or

Promotion (2.3 pts/game)

9W + any 2
8W 1D 2L

Play offs sounds very achievable, automatics not so.

Going up via playoffs could prove more profitable than automatic.

We could quite easily finish anywhere from 4th to 9th, the margins are very fine going into these last eleven games. Make no mistake it will be a bloody disaster and a gross under achievement were we not to make the top seven. 5 wins and a draw from 11 games is only mid table form after all. Wycombe would have to continue to have a drop in form for us to have any chance of grabbing 3rd spot. I think we will sneak in OK, it's nothing to get that excited about, it's the minimum we should achieve really but it would be nice to go up via the play offs, it's been a long time since we had anything much to enjoy.