Bury, Saturday 28 February 2015.

Moving swiftly on after the fine result at Devon rivals Exeter City, Argyle entertain fellow Play-Off hopefuls Bury at home.

A tough match beckons, but it is a game i feel Argyle could win.

So, is this a must win fixture for Argyle.

Looking at the stats for both teams, they are both so close, although Argyle have the better GD.

Plymouth 32 15 7 10 40 23 17 52

Bury 32 15 7 10 43 35 8 52

There's nearly a third of the season to go, so it isn't a 'must win'. We just need to keep this run going for as long as possible though. We're bang in form, but Bury have only lost 1 in 8. A draw wouldn't be catastrophic either, given the circumstances.

Is there any news on Reids injury?

Czarcasm wrote:

There's nearly a third of the season to go, so it isn't a 'must win'. We just need to keep this run going for as long as possible though. We're bang in form, but Bury having only lost 1 in 8. A draw wouldn't be catastrophic either, given the circumstances.

Is there any news on Reids injury?

I disagree Czarcas, If we want to cement a playoff place or indeed nick a automatic promotion spot then we have to beat Bury who are after the exact samething and will want to beat us for the same reasons.

To get through the playoffs we will have to beat our rivals, now would be a good place to start.

Will we climb up to the high attendance which Exeter reach at  St James Park on Saturday Att: 7,440..

We also face Stevenage away on the Tuesday following which will be another tough game.

Chemical Ali wrote:

We also face Stevenage away on the Tuesday following which will be another tough game.

Indeed. I would take a win against Bury and a draw at worst against Stevenage.

Argyle have just got to continue getting results and keeping in touch with those around them.

Fourteen games to go and a fair few points to play for still.

Argyle have yet to play Newport, Northampton and Burton at home.

The final game at Shrewsbury could be an interesting game should Argyle keep up the pace..

I have not heard any other news on the injury to RR.

Sheridan said it was just a knock in his post-match interview.

It's certainly a must-not-lose game if not a must win one.

Hatrick man

Do not worry it only his foot  and should be alright for Bury

Quote

Reid was substituted before play restarted after his third goal because of a foot injury, with Ryan Brunt taking over from him.

“I have been struggling with a lot of little niggly things,” said Argyle’s hat-trick hero.

“I had a few problems with my feet, and have been in quite a bit of pain. After I scored and planted my foot, the pain really came on quite suddenly.

“I just thought it was best to get off the pitch. I didn’t want to do any more damage


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GreenSam wrote:

Sheridan said it was just a knock in his post-match interview.

It's certainly a must-not-lose game if not a must win one.

Why is it even a 'must not lose'?

We have 14 games left. We could realistically lose to Bury and finish 5 points ahead of them in May.

It is an important game in terms of confidence and setting our expectations, nothing more and nothing less. All talk of must win or must not lose is losing sense of what those games really are.

ejh wrote:

GreenSam wrote:

Sheridan said it was just a knock in his post-match interview.

It's certainly a must-not-lose game if not a must win one.

Why is it even a 'must not lose'?

We have 14 games left. We could realistically lose to Bury and finish 5 points ahead of them in May.

It is an important game in terms of confidence and setting our expectations, nothing more and nothing less. All talk of must win or must not lose is losing sense of what those games really are.

Kind of down to a maths problem really. If the teams below us win and we lose to Bury and Stevenage then we will no longer be in the playoffs even. Win both and an automatic is even on the cards. Theoretical wins no prizes, points do.
Bury will look at this as a must win and wtf shouldn't we?

ejh wrote:

GreenSam wrote:

Sheridan said it was just a knock in his post-match interview.

It's certainly a must-not-lose game if not a must win one.

Why is it even a 'must not lose'?

We have 14 games left. We could realistically lose to Bury and finish 5 points ahead of them in May.

It is an important game in terms of confidence and setting our expectations, nothing more and nothing less. All talk of must win or must not lose is losing sense of what those games really are.

Indeed. If we had one or two games remaining, not 14, then a 'MUST NOT LOSE' game it would certainly be. The tag 'MUST NOT LOSE' infers that an insurmountable consequence would come from losing. It wouldn't, therefore it ain't a 'MUST NOT LOSE' game.

If we want automatic promotion they are all must not lose games.

ejh wrote:

GreenSam wrote:

Sheridan said it was just a knock in his post-match interview.

It's certainly a must-not-lose game if not a must win one.

Why is it even a 'must not lose'?

We have 14 games left. We could realistically lose to Bury and finish 5 points ahead of them in May.

It is an important game in terms of confidence and setting our expectations, nothing more and nothing less. All talk of must win or must not lose is losing sense of what those games really are.

I think back to '86: Derby, Wigan and Argyle were battling it out for the 2 promotion spots behind runaway leaders Reading. (I think Reading won their first 15 games and had been nailed on champions all season.)

A tricky away game at Wigan loomed and got ever more important as it got closer. Winning this game made promotion, if not certain, likely to happen - probable to happen, even, for both sides and a draw woud have handed the advantage to Derby... It was similar in build up to the QPR game at Home Park: there was still a few games to go but this was the one that mattered and would all but settle it.

The Green Army mustered in numbers not seen since Peterbrough away in '75 and, like P'Boro in 75, mayhem ensued all over town and in the match Argyle simply froze and we lost 3-0. That was us stuffed and Wigan home and dry - so we thought.

Argyle and Derby ended up being promoted.

GreenSam wrote:

....

It's certainly a must-not-lose game if not a must win one.

This. Of course we want to win it, we should be aiming for the top three in this vein of form. However a draw keeps them below us and wouldn't be a disaster.

What concerns me more however is the age old 'typical Argo' factor.

On good form?, off the back of a double over 'them up the road'?, a (relatively - it is league 2) big and significant game?, with probably a good few more on the gate?.....

.....Argo usually f**k those sort of games up

X Isle wrote:

GreenSam wrote:

....

It's certainly a must-not-lose game if not a must win one.

This. Of course we want to win it, we should be aiming for the top three in this vein of form. However a draw keeps them below us and wouldn't be a disaster.

What concerns me more however is the age old 'typical Argo' factor.

On good form?, off the back of a double over 'them up the road'?, a (relatively - it is league 2) big and significant game?, with probably a good few more on the gate?.....

.....Argo usually f**k those sort of games up  

A draw wouldnt be the end of the world your right however with this league being so close we need to defeat teams like us fighting for a spot in the playoffs or even top 3.

I don't have any data on this but I suspect that this is one of those saws that is more than a little unfair.

I don't think it s a case of Argyle "bottling it on the big occasion" at all just the laws of probability asserting themselves. The Manager Of The Month curse is a similar manifestation of the same thing.

There are very few clubs who win nearly all the time but those that do, currently say Man City and Chelsea, see many more of these matches simply by vitrue of being better than everybody else. For them winning 4 in a row is no big deal and so the 5th, 6th or 7th is no great shakes either and their run of wins typically lasts much longer. After all they are only likely to lose a handful of matches per season so the chances of one of those defeats coinciding with an important match is quite low (unless they end up playing each other).

Argyle isn't a team that operates at that level of success and, over the years, tends to lose about as many as it wins. Hence a run of 4 wins is a rarity and hints at a temperary bursting of the bubble of mediocrity which in so many ways defines us. So just as 4 wins has led us to dream once again of promotion it is only natural that the casual fan picks up on the vibe and is inspired to pop along to a game resulting in a bumper crowd and a biggish occasion (or as big an occasion as a match against Bury can be).

Unfortunately all streaks come to an end eventually and despite, or perhaps because of, each match being an independent random event a defeat is certain to come along (even for Chelsea and Man City) at some stage.

The MotM curse is identical: to be up for it there has to be an exceptional run of results and, because it is exceptional, it is sure to end.

So does Argyle bottle it more than we might expect? I suspect not. Not anymore than any other comparable team anyway.

It's this beating of the odds that makes victory in one of those big occasions ( v QPR being the most recent example) but it applies to every ultimately successful cup run, too. And it damned near blows yer mind when it happens. It's essentially the drug that keeps us, as followers of a relatively unsuccessful football club, going both literally and metaphorically; it is the lifeblood of what it is to be tangibly antithetical to plastic.

So let's hope that we do beat 'em all and keep dodging that bullet of defeat, because that's the very best we can hope for, but one day we'll lose that game of Russian roulette

It'd make quite a good subject for some in-depth study, actually.

Iggy wrote:

ejh wrote:

GreenSam wrote:

Sheridan said it was just a knock in his post-match interview.

It's certainly a must-not-lose game if not a must win one.

Why is it even a 'must not lose'?

We have 14 games left. We could realistically lose to Bury and finish 5 points ahead of them in May.

It is an important game in terms of confidence and setting our expectations, nothing more and nothing less. All talk of must win or must not lose is losing sense of what those games really are.

Kind of down to a maths problem really. If the teams below us win and we lose to Bury and Stevenage then we will no longer be in the playoffs even. Win both and an automatic is even on the cards. Theoretical wins no prizes, points do.
Bury will look at this as a must win and wtf shouldn't we?

Every game could be seen as must win depending on how you want to look at it.

If we lose, it's unfortunate but it is hardly the end of our season.

Whereas if we had lost our game to Hereford a few years ago, they would have gone above us in the table with a handful of games remaining. We would have dropped into the relegation zone. It would have been an immense confidence booster for them, and a total dampener on our remaining games.

That was must not lose, we couldn't let them seize the initiative in the relegation battle. Our fate would not have been in our own hands. We didn't lose it, they went down and currently they have an empty stadium with no club.

To me, that is what 'must not lose' means.

Every single game in this feckin tinpot slugfest, FSAF league is must win FCOL.

Zackly Mock, there isn't enough bottle these days, we should expect to win these games, why shouldn't we? It's almost as though we are being told that anything above mediocrity is ok, not how I've lived my life.

Look like Bury are taking over Man City old training ground.

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

I don't have any data on this but I suspect that this is one of those saws that is more than a little unfair.

I don't think it s a case of Argyle "bottling it on the big occasion" at all just the laws of probability asserting themselves. The Manager Of The Month curse is a similar manifestation of the same thing.

There are very few clubs who win nearly all the time but those that do, currently say Man City and Chelsea, see many more of these matches simply by vitrue of being better than everybody else. For them winning 4 in a row is no big deal and so the 5th, 6th or 7th is no great shakes either and their run of wins typically lasts much longer. After all they are only likely to lose a handful of matches per season so the chances of one of those defeats coinciding with an important match is quite low (unless they end up playing each other).

Argyle isn't a team that operates at that level of success and, over the years, tends to lose about as many as it wins. Hence a run of 4 wins is a rarity and hints at a temperary bursting of the bubble of mediocrity which in so many ways defines us. So just as 4 wins has led us to dream once again of promotion it is only natural that the casual fan picks up on the vibe and is inspired to pop along to a game resulting in a bumper crowd and a biggish occasion (or as big an occasion as a match against Bury can be).

Unfortunately all streaks come to an end eventually and despite, or perhaps because of, each match being an independent random event a defeat is certain to come along (even for Chelsea and Man City) at some stage.

The MotM curse is identical: to be up for it there has to be an exceptional run of results and, because it is exceptional, it is sure to end.

So does Argyle bottle it more than we might expect? I suspect not. Not anymore than any other comparable team anyway.

It's this beating of the odds that makes victory in one of those big occasions ( v QPR being the most recent example) but it applies to every ultimately successful cup run, too. And it damned near blows yer mind when it happens. It's essentially the drug that keeps us, as followers of a relatively unsuccessful football club, going both literally and metaphorically; it is the lifeblood of what it is to be tangibly antithetical to plastic.

So let's hope that we do beat 'em all and keep dodging that bullet of defeat, because that's the very best we can hope for, but one day we'll lose that game of Russian roulette

It'd make quite a good subject for some in-depth study, actually.

Agree with that. It's confirmation bias, whereby people only see a pattern when they look for it, and ignore the times it doesn't happen.

As for this game, it's very important and arguably more important, certainly in terms of league position, than Exeter last week. As the two form teams in the league go head-to-head, I'm guessing it'll be a score draw. 1-1.

Same team as last week, except Cox to come in for Lee.

52 points!

Am I the first to realise that we have avoided relegation?

Accrington 1 Burton O tonight result

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

52 points!

Am I the first to realise that we have avoided relegation?

That is something to celebrate then !!.