How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?

harvetheslayer wrote:

Promoted at Pompey would be good !!

Posted on March 6th.

And so it came to pass.

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

If the target is still 82 (I think it'll be lower - perhaps as low as 77 now) we have 13 points to go.

Basically 4 more wins should do it.

Posted on March 16th.

Czarcasm wrote:

If things carry on as they have done, form-wise, it will be one of the lowest points totals ever needed to secure 3rd. Two wins from eight could easily be enough for us.

Posted March 22nd.

It was.

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

I like this sort of thing.

Last season I ran a countdown to, what I confidently expected to be, our inevitable promotion. Well we all know what happened next and it turned out to be our route to the play-offs. No matter the stats don't change.

I went back over the previous 10 years and looked at how many points were scored by the Champs, last promoted team and last play-off spot. The points needed for each of these is probably higher than that required because in many cases they beat the team below by more than one point.

Anyway the points needed were:

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And, applying the same criteria for last year:

Champions: 99 points
Promoted: 85 points
Play-offs: 75 points

So last season all three important positions were achieved by higher than average points totals - not only was our implosion remarkable but so too was the successful pursuit by the teams behind us for so long.

Anyway I'd say win (Mean +2) points and we would be unlucky not to hit the target.

Meaning from where we currently are, 60 points with 17 to games to go, thats:

Champs ~ 91 points ~10W + 1D or equivalent
Promotion ~ 85 points ~ 8W +1D or equivalent
Play-offs ~ 68 points ~ 2W + 2D or equivalent

...in our last 17 games.

So 10 defeats and 7 wins might do it but is, I suggest, unlikely because it would give us 81 points and that was enough in only 5 of the last 11 seasons but it is right there on that coin toss.

Win every game and we are sure to be champions no matter what.

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

Stevenage draw (62 points after 39 games) and Luton lose (60 points from 39 games but now behind Blackpool on goal difference).

The maximum points total we now need is 83.

We currently have 72 with 8 games to play.

11 points or 4 wins will definitely, mathematically do it no matter what.

Realistically with 7 games to go the boot is now on the other foot...

If we win once Stevenage need 14 points (5 wins, 4 wins and 2 draws or better)
If we win twice Stevenage need 17 points (6 wins and 2 draws, 5 wins and 2 draws or better)
If we win thrice Stevenage need 7 wins and nothing else will do.

2 more wins needed with 8 to play, I reckon.

Posted March 25th.

Angry wrote:

aslong as we keep up with doncaster no matter what they do, then the rest will take care of itself playoff/automatic promotion wise. I want us to go up as champions so 90 plus maybe required.

Just aslong as we dont fall apart like the last two seasons ill be happy.

dam 1 point out of my prediction

Angry wrote:

Angry wrote:

aslong as we keep up with doncaster no matter what they do, then the rest will take care of itself playoff/automatic promotion wise. I want us to go up as champions so 90 plus maybe required.

Just aslong as we dont fall apart like the last two seasons ill be happy.

dam 1 point out of my prediction

Sorry. I missed that one or I would have bumped it too.