The EU referendum rolls on and on.

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

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^just for info^

Somewhat bemused by the pointless grandstanding going on as Cameron works really hard to get a consensus with the other Euro leaders. It gives him a chance to look really serious in news bulletins and his macho factor is enhanced by the up all night schtick but it is all a sham, isn't it?

Whatever he successfully negotiates it won't be enough for those minded to vote out and he'll trumpet a great victory as everybody else thinks "is that it?" If he doesn't successfully negotiate then he has nowhere to go, does he? He'll have to resign, surely? He probably won't though.

This has been all about trying to placate the mad wing of the Tory party from the outset but they have the scent of blood in their nostrils and the blood lust won't subside until the deed is done and the matter is settled. But whatever the outcome of either this weekend or the referendum it won't be.

Cameron has diced with death all the way through this issue. He's offered no leadership at all as he's squirmed this way and that to save his own skin. He's just plankton on the political sea of life. A truly mediocre politician joined at the hip to an incompetent chancellor leading a party that largely despises them both.

Still whatever is or isn't settled this weekend the fall-out will be fascinating to observe.

Your graph only proves one thing and that is what the odds are for leaving over a small time frame. Where it falls down is that the bookies don't have to predict a correct result they just need to balance their books, thats what a book is and why a bookie will send a runner down to a competitor to lay against their own book or "hedge" as it's known. The bookies don't care what the result is only that they have backed the winner or in the owrst case not lost. The increase in odds one way or the other is only a reaction to betting for example, I lay a million quid on us leaving the bookie will look to increase the odds on us remaining to the tune of one million also. The increased odds in one direction or the other have no bearing whatsoever on the predicted outcome from the bookies. One thing the bookies all hate is a favourite to win a race.

Dave started his campaign by saying that he wanted.....no benefits to be paid to migrants until they'd been living here for 4 years(presumably so they'd contribute to the pot before taking from it).

He victoriously got.....an 'emergency brake' on the amount of benefit that can be paid to migrants, but only when immigration reaches critical levels(who decides when that is) and presumably when the other 27 EU states agree

Geddon big Dave, those Europeans look one hell of a beating.

After all the moaning and nashing of teeth in this country about Europe over the last 30 years, I thought it mildly amusing that the English prime minister thought the subject with the most traction with the English public would be welfare benefits for immigrants. Nothing about fishing or farming, who makes the rules, how much it costs, human rights or pensions in the sun. Says it all really. We get the electorate we deserve. I'm surprised any of the Europeans still want the UK and it's 19th century leanings. Maybe they're just being polite.

Official: June 23rd is EU referendum day.

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

Odds to a percentage is simple arithmetic.

Brexit stay is currently about 2/5. This means the bookies assess 5 chances in 7 (=2+5). 5/7 as a decimal is 0.714 (to 3 sig figs) 0r 71.4%.

Brexit leave is 7/4. This means the bookies assess 4 chances in 11 (=7+4). 4/11 as a decimal is 0.364 (to 3 sig figs) or 36.4%.

Simples.

Obviously the outcomes are mutually exclusive and so should add up to 100% whereas, in fact, they sum to 108%. This is impossible arithmetically - and it is exactly how bookies make their money. If they summed to, say, 92% they lose money. So they don't.

You should try reading numeracy for 12 year olds.

Oh dear, that really wouldn't amount to stats for 12 year olds.

Never mind, if you really think that 70% of people are going to vote remain because of your chart I would get straight down the bookies now before the rest of the morons spot this sure bet.

Lord Biro wrote:

After all the moaning and nashing of teeth in this country about Europe over the last 30 years, I thought it mildly amusing that the English prime minister thought the subject with the most traction with the English public would be welfare benefits for immigrants. Nothing about fishing or farming, who makes the rules, how much it costs, human rights or pensions in the sun. Says it all really. We get the electorate we deserve. I'm surprised any of the Europeans still want the UK and it's 19th century leanings. Maybe they're just being polite.

You forgot the straightness and cosmetic appearance of bananas, cucumbers, carrots...

Oh, and European law still takes precedence over British law.

Lord Biro wrote:

After all the moaning and nashing of teeth in this country about Europe over the last 30 years, I thought it mildly amusing that the English prime minister thought the subject with the most traction with the English public would be welfare benefits for immigrants. Nothing about fishing or farming, who makes the rules, how much it costs, human rights or pensions in the sun. Says it all really. We get the electorate we deserve. I'm surprised any of the Europeans still want the UK and it's 19th century leanings. Maybe they're just being polite.

We are stumping up £11 billion this year alone, why wouldn't they want us in?

Despite of all of the bluster and rhetoric I feel Dave looks weary and deflated by what he's managed to achieve in Brussels.

AstiSpumante wrote:

Despite of all of the bluster and rhetoric I feel Dave looks weary and deflated by what he's managed to achieve in Brussels.

He's going for the sympathy vote.

Lord Tisdale wrote:

AstiSpumante wrote:

Despite of all of the bluster and rhetoric I feel Dave looks weary and deflated by what he's managed to achieve in Brussels.

He's going for the sympathy vote.

Maybe, the English love a loser.

I think we'll almost deffo stay in. You have the leaders of the biggest two political parties campaigning to stay in. That, as much as anything, will hold sway. You've also got massive uncertainty of what leaving will bring, tangibly.

A massive proportion of the potential electorate don't even bother with General Elections. Largely through laziness, ignorance, apathy, or abject disinterest because most MP's are basically self-promoting airheads riddled with aloofness and hopelessly out of touch with real life issues, (I fall into this bracket, for the most part ). So there's little chance of the average man in the street taking the time to digest all of these EU conundrums and making a considered decision.

Hopefully there'll be a laymans terms precis produced by a neutral body of some type, giving as many actual facts (rather than mere opinions) about the pro's and con's of staying or leaving.

Let's wait and see what happens when half the cabinet join the backbenchers in the out campaign, it's gonna get nasty.
I think it's on a knife edge at the moment the fact the electorate don't like change may be the thing that keeps us in, that and the amount of fear big Dave can generate.

Les Miserable wrote:

Lord Biro wrote:

After all the moaning and nashing of teeth in this country about Europe over the last 30 years, I thought it mildly amusing that the English prime minister thought the subject with the most traction with the English public would be welfare benefits for immigrants. Nothing about fishing or farming, who makes the rules, how much it costs, human rights or pensions in the sun. Says it all really. We get the electorate we deserve. I'm surprised any of the Europeans still want the UK and it's 19th century leanings. Maybe they're just being polite.

You forgot the straightness and cosmetic appearance of bananas, cucumbers, carrots...

I've got a long memory, Les. I remember cardboard apples with skin more wrinkly than my grandmother's. I remember Cornish pasties being shipped down from the North. "They" would sell you black bananas if they could. In fact, recently, the big boys that try to dominate Europe, AND the UK, have been busy enlisting celeb chefs to convince us just how good for us rotten fruit is, and how squirrel vermin should be put into the food chain after being culled. Shame on us apparently for wasting such a valuable resource.
We need more food legislation, not less.

"We", the people, had to invent the Co-op so we could source ourselves and buy coffee that wasn't routinely cut with soil. Nowadays, "they" still fill to the pastry lid our foods with bulking agents and emulsifiers.
Take my advice. Don't buy any bread that isn't organic. They all soak their wheat with glyphosphate a week before they harvest it.
And as for the great English beer, just check the plethora of additives the English allow in their beer compared  to the Germans.

Lord Biro wrote:

We need more food legislation, not less.

Absolutely, from a safety, quality and hygiene pov, not appearance related though. I know for a fact that fruit and veg producers regularly have a proportion of their wares rejected by supermarkets because of appearance issues, nothing whatsoever to do with freshness or quality.

In all fairness though I'm not sure if that is directly related to any specific EU directive or just the cuntyness of supermarket produce acquisition jobsworths.

Supermarkets foreshore, not sure if there has ever been any straight cucumber laws, I'm all for beating the euro but supermarkets are utter cnuts. Funnily enough I have a friend staying who lives in Sussex only earlier he was telling us his neighbour is a huge supermarket veg supplier, he now has to not only cut the veg to order but wash, trim, pack and price the product before delivering it individually to the different stores. He used to cut and crate the product and deliver it to the supermarket processing plant the supermarket would do the rest.

You've raised a point there, Les.
The EU havebeen the go to bad guys if something is unpopular. Very handy whipping boys that have been protecting the Westminster Tories and Blairites for decades. Most laws have been voted in by our MEPs, and our own parliament would have done, if we weren't members of the EU.
The fishing thing is one of the few issues that a British government might have behaved differently, but I saw no evidence of our own government favouring our own coal miners over the cheaper foreign imported coal.

As far as I understand it, it's the supermarkets that are very fussy about appearance in general, along with their customers. God knows there is enough processed food in this country to swallow up the "unattractive" veg, but even those producers turn their nose up often. There is also dodgy reasons why charities are no longer to receive certain unsold foods. That isn't an EU thing either.

I grow 90% of our  annual veg consumption, and some of it ain't pretty, but I can vouch for it's goodness and chemical free freshness. I wouldn't trust Teddy Tesco to sell me a packet of mints. Just look at the meat scandal that supermarkets knew darn well was pumped up with horse meat. And what happened to these companies ? absolutely nothing, as the system had deliberately obfuscated the audit trail. Westminster have been bought off. The more I think about it, the more I'm swaying the other way to remain in.

Lord Tisdale wrote:

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

Odds to a percentage is simple arithmetic.

Brexit stay is currently about 2/5. This means the bookies assess 5 chances in 7 (=2+5). 5/7 as a decimal is 0.714 (to 3 sig figs) 0r 71.4%.

Brexit leave is 7/4. This means the bookies assess 4 chances in 11 (=7+4). 4/11 as a decimal is 0.364 (to 3 sig figs) or 36.4%.

Simples.

Obviously the outcomes are mutually exclusive and so should add up to 100% whereas, in fact, they sum to 108%. This is impossible arithmetically - and it is exactly how bookies make their money. If they summed to, say, 92% they lose money. So they don't.

You should try reading numeracy for 12 year olds.

Oh dear, that really wouldn't amount to stats for 12 year olds.

Never mind, if you really think that 70% of people are going to vote remain because of your chart I would get straight down the bookies now before the rest of the morons spot this sure bet.

Where did I say that the graph showed what I think? Don't think I did.

What is it with basic comprehension around here? Why not read what I said rather than you would like me to have said? It isn't hard. Even for you.

Lord Biro wrote:

You've raised a point there, Les.
The EU havebeen the go to bad guys if something is unpopular. Very handy whipping boys that have been protecting the Westminster Tories and Blairites for decades. Most laws have been voted in by our MEPs, and our own parliament would have done, if we weren't members of the EU.
The fishing thing is one of the few issues that a British government might have behaved differently, but I saw no evidence of our own government favouring our own coal miners over the cheaper foreign imported coal.

As far as I understand it, it's the supermarkets that are very fussy about appearance in general, along with their customers. God knows there is enough processed food in this country to swallow up the "unattractive" veg, but even those producers turn their nose up often. There is also dodgy reasons why charities are no longer to receive certain unsold foods. That isn't an EU thing either.

I grow 90% of our  annual veg consumption, and some of it ain't pretty, but I can vouch for it's goodness and chemical free freshness. I wouldn't trust Teddy Tesco to sell me a packet of mints. Just look at the meat scandal that supermarkets knew darn well was pumped up with horse meat. And what happened to these companies ? absolutely nothing, as the system had deliberately obfuscated the audit trail. Westminster have been bought off. The more I think about it, the more I'm swaying the other way to remain in.

Very true, looks over substance. I buy the majority of my steaks from the butcher but it cracks me up if ever I do venture to the steak counter in a supermarket and see the hard of thinking desperately trawling through packets looking for the leanest, blandest slab of meat they can find without, god forbid, any signs of fat. What they fail to realise is that all the tenderest, tastiest steaks have a marbling of fat running through them, ask any butcher or chef, and small amounts of natural fat in your food will do you know harm whatsoever, in fact the human body needs it. Heavily processed foods and in particular sugar are far more dangerous.

Les Miserable wrote:

Lord Biro wrote:

You've raised a point there, Les.
The EU havebeen the go to bad guys if something is unpopular. Very handy whipping boys that have been protecting the Westminster Tories and Blairites for decades. Most laws have been voted in by our MEPs, and our own parliament would have done, if we weren't members of the EU.
The fishing thing is one of the few issues that a British government might have behaved differently, but I saw no evidence of our own government favouring our own coal miners over the cheaper foreign imported coal.

As far as I understand it, it's the supermarkets that are very fussy about appearance in general, along with their customers. God knows there is enough processed food in this country to swallow up the "unattractive" veg, but even those producers turn their nose up often. There is also dodgy reasons why charities are no longer to receive certain unsold foods. That isn't an EU thing either.

I grow 90% of our  annual veg consumption, and some of it ain't pretty, but I can vouch for it's goodness and chemical free freshness. I wouldn't trust Teddy Tesco to sell me a packet of mints. Just look at the meat scandal that supermarkets knew darn well was pumped up with horse meat. And what happened to these companies ? absolutely nothing, as the system had deliberately obfuscated the audit trail. Westminster have been bought off. The more I think about it, the more I'm swaying the other way to remain in.

Very true, looks over substance. I buy the majority of my steaks from the butcher but it cracks me up if ever I do venture to the steak counter in a supermarket and see the hard of thinking desperately trawling through packets looking for the leanest, blandest slab of meat they can find without, god forbid, any signs of fat. What they fail to realise is that all the tenderest, tastiest steaks have a marbling of fat running through them, ask any butcher or chef, and small amounts of natural fat in your food will do you know harm whatsoever, in fact the human body needs it. Heavily processed foods and in particular sugar are far more dangerous.

A quality veer off topic Les, love it.   Meat and two veg !!!

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And Brexit becomes a side show for the battle to run the Tory party. Quality. Cameron is wounded, who'd have thought that Corbyn may yet be in at the kill of Cameron chuckling as the Tories tear themselves apart, I bet Camaron feckin hates Europe now.

You're going home in a Westminster ambulance

Bojo cracks me up, peddles up to No 10 looking like Benny from crossroads the other day but under the flasher mac he's wearing a massive strap on and he rode Dave until he was sore. Wolf in sheeps clothing foreshore if only we could team Bojo up with Corby as an elder and advisor they would rule the world, well call it Conservour, get a few decent pr people in and it would become a market leading brand. Get your money on it now.

In his first conference speech as leader Hameron claimed that the party had "alienated voters by "banging on" about Europe".

Somehow he's managed to ensure that his party does nothing but bang on about Europe throughout 2016 and it was all so completely unnecessary!

Amsterdamage wrote:

Bojo cracks me up, peddles up to No 10 looking like Benny from crossroads the other day but under the flasher mac he's wearing a massive strap on and he rode Dave until he was sore. Wolf in sheeps clothing foreshore if only we could team Bojo up with Corby as an elder and advisor they would rule the world, well call it Conservour, get a few decent pr people in and it would become a market leading brand. Get your money on it now.

I wonder what odds you'd get on Bojo becoming Leader and trouncing Corbyn at the next GE by a record amount?

Tbh I doubt you'd get great odds.