The Greens Are Staying Up!!

Yesterday we hit 50 points. In 4 out of the past 5 seasons that would have been enough to stay up. With 12 games to go that's job done, I reckon.

Having looked at the last 5 years worth of tables the points needed to be Champs, promoted, in the play-offs or to stay up are below. (These are not necessarily the total scored. In 2015 Bristol City ended up with 99 points but only actually needed 92 to win the league.)

Anyway here's the figures:

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We currently have 50 points with 12 games to play.

If we need 90 points (mean + 1) to win the league then we cannot do it.

If we need 86 points (mean +1) to be promoted then we need to win every game.

If we need 72 points (mean + 1) to get a play-off spot then we need another 22 points.

Without being too fussy we need to get around 2 points per game from here on in to get a play-off spot.

Obviously we may require fewer points but 22 points from 12 games is going to be very, very tough.

We may only be one game away from a play-off place but in reality we're further adrift than that due to having played more games.

Had someone said back in November that we would be safe before end Feb then they would have been locked up! We've got 29 points from last 12 games and we have to play a few teams around us yet. We need to monitor other teams as well - like today when Peterborough drew at Blackpool. Their 1 point keeps them at arms length. Will we get in the play-offs? On present form we will but how long can we keep performing at this level. Ask me in another 6 games.
1st aim was survival - so tick it off!

bar any horrific run of results id say we are safe now. Main objective is achieved now for next season we should push for the playoffs with more conviction keeping the core of this squad plus additions,

It’s a very tall order. Logic says we’ve got a few defeats in us but winning 8 from 12 would feel like underperforming at the moment...yet would see us in the top 6. Feels like it’s kind of in our hands as we have to play a lot of the teams around us in the run-in.

I still think we end up 8th-10th but could be a great ride. Spirit of ‘86 needs invoking - think we won 9 out of last 10 to go up? Did have Sir Thomas of Tynan banging ‘em in, of course.

I am now confident that we have enough points not to be relegated.

Well played you Pilgrims!

Frank, you should have joined the circus. You should have gone to Turin.

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

I am now confident that we have enough points not to be relegated.

Well played you Pilgrims!

Absolutely! 53 is ample.
Snag now is expectations among the fans. Stay seated please.

Here's the top bit of the current table.

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It looks to me like 71 points (the average) for the play-offs might be a bit low this season but if it holds we'll need another 14 points from 9 games but when I started this we needed 22 points from 12 so we are well ahead of that schedule.

If two of Wigan, Blackpool and Shrewsbury win another 3 games we cannot be automatically promoted.

I'm now thinking we might need 75 points to get into the play-offs - another 18 points:

6 wins and any 3 others

5 wins and 3 draws.

This one's going all the way to the wire, baby!!

Exciting, isn't it!!

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

Here's the top bit of the current table.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

It looks to me like 71 points (the average) for the play-offs might be a bit low this season but if it holds we'll need another 14 points from 9 games but when I started this we needed 22 points from 12 so we are well ahead of that schedule.

If two of Wigan, Blackpool and Shrewsbury win another 3 games we cannot be automatically promoted.

I'm now thinking we might need 75 points to get into the play-offs - another 18 points:

6 wins and any 3 others

5 wins and 3 draws.

This one's going all the way to the wire, baby!!

Exciting, isn't it!!

Blackburn dear chap. Blackburn.

Teams around us to play each other in the next two weeks

Saturday
Bradford City v Gillingham
Southend United v Rotherham United
Peterborough United v Bristol Rover

Sunday
Portsmouth v Oxford United

Thursday
Blackburn Rovers v Bradford City

Friday
Oxford United v Scunthorpe United
Rotherham United v Peterborough United

Saturday
Walsall v Portsmouth

After this weeks midweek games

We also have to play a lot of teams around us T they will be the ones that make a difference like Rovers last week.

March

Charlton Athletic Sat Mar 24

Southend United Fri Mar 30

April

Scunthorpe United Away Mon Apr

Peterborough United Home Sat Apr 07

Portsmouth  Home Sat Apr 14

Northampton Town  Away Sat Apr 21

Rochdale Away Tue Apr 24

Rotherham United  Home Sat Apr 28

May

Gillingham  Away Sat May 05

It's just a good old-fashioned dog fight between these 6 now.

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I reckon we still need to average 2 points per game to get a play-off spot.

And our next 3 games?

Scunny (a)
Peterboro (h)
Pompey (h)

Win all of those and we're as good as there.

Then all have to do is win the play-offs.

I'm dreaming of us v Pompey at Wembley.

Pompey right back in the mix with one nil win over Walsall today on 58pts.

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

I'm dreaming of us v Pompey at Wembley.

Really?

Would be extremely messy.

Would Portsmouth take more fans then us?

If that was the final I reckon Wembley would be sold out.

Tgwu wrote:

Would Portsmouth take more fans then us?

No. We'd both take our max allocation. Easily.

Les Miserable wrote:

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

I'm dreaming of us v Pompey at Wembley.

Really?

Would be extremely messy.

Agreed, it would be a head feck from start to finish. They really don’t like us.

Hugh Watt wrote:

Les Miserable wrote:

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

I'm dreaming of us v Pompey at Wembley.

Really?

Would be extremely messy.

Agreed, it would be a head feck from start to finish. They really don’t like us.

Thought it was a mutual dislike.

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

If that was the final I reckon Wembley would be sold out.

No doubt about it! More fans than England vs Anyone. What an advert that would be for Lge 1.

Dunno if I could face another Wembley day so soon after the last one still have nightmares about it. We should have been offered counselling.

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

Yesterday we hit 50 points. In 4 out of the past 5 seasons that would have been enough to stay up. With 12 games to go that's job done, I reckon.

Having looked at the last 5 years worth of tables the points needed to be Champs, promoted, in the play-offs or to stay up are below. (These are not necessarily the total scored. In 2015 Bristol City ended up with 99 points but only actually needed 92 to win the league.)

Anyway here's the figures:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

We currently have 50 points with 12 games to play.

If we need 90 points (mean + 1) to win the league then we cannot do it.

If we need 86 points (mean +1) to be promoted then we need to win every game.

If we need 72 points (mean + 1) to get a play-off spot then we need another 22 points.

Without being too fussy we need to get around 2 points per game from here on in to get a play-off spot.

Obviously we may require fewer points but 22 points from 12 games is going to be very, very tough.

We may only be one game away from a play-off place but in reality we're further adrift than that due to having played more games.

72 points was what we needed.

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