ROTG Article

I just remembered an excellent article by Martin Sainsbury in the May issue (117) of the notable fanzine 'Rub of the Greens', where he talks about the HHP development.  Here is the latter part of that article.  I hope they don't mind me reproducing it here, but I think the payoff is that it is great promotion for ROTG, and I hope that some of you having read this, will subscribe.

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James Brent has estimated that the new stand could generate an extra 1 million or more in net income per year from the new stand, "depending on which league we are in".  The assumption - at least in the Herald's story that 'New Home Park grandstand will bring in  1 million a year and put Plymouth Argyle in the Championship - is that the financial return would be highest should Argyle return to the Championship. Thanks to the nature of the 30 year lease agreed with Plymouth City Council for Home Park, it looks better from a businessman's point of view for Argyle to rise no higher than the upper reaches of League One.

Argyle currently pay a set rent to the council of 135,000 a year; this would rise by 150% if Argyle were to reach the Championship. When winning promotion from League Two in 2002-03, Argyle's average attendance was nearly 9,000; it climbed to over 12,600 when winning promotion from League one in 2003-04.   lf promotion success was to be repeated and attendances matched, 19,000 people would be required at each Championship match for Argyle's ticket income to keep pace with the rent increases. This is far above the average attendances Argyle achieved in their last spell in the championship, and somewhat difficult to achieve in a 17,700 capacity stadium.

As part of their lease, Argyle also has the option to buy the ground from the council every five years
for the price of twelve times the annual rent. This option will first arise in 2016, shortly after 2015's
planned completion of the wider Higher Home Park development - so perhaps an ideal time for the
owners of the club to buy back the ground. lf Argyle were in League One in 2016, the price would be
1.6 million; if they had reached the Championship, it would cost 2.43 Million.



John Sheridan’s quote that the new stand will give Argyle "the best stadium in the division" suggests
the club's outlook is for Argyle to remain in League Two at least until the stand's proposed completion in the 2014-15 season.  This would ensure Argyle could not reach The Championship in time for the next point at which they could purchase the ground in 2016. James Brent has stated that "based on the numbers we have done, with the income from the new grandstand we think the club can get back to Championship and sustain itself there".

I of course really hope that is the case - I just wouldn't bet on it happening very quickly.

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I did the 'bolding'.
I don't know if the facts or figures are correct, but if they are, it is food for thought.....

Very, very interesting read - the more you hear, the more you question this knight in 'green' armour!! At some point you would think any fan with half a brain will piece these snippets together and come up with the same distressing views that many on here have - this will not end well!! 

Why have we not had all the facts put before us by Brent? Because the sums don't add up.
#fagpacketmaths

Rickler wrote:

  lf promotion success was to be repeated and attendances matched, 19,000 people would be required at each Championship match for Argyle's ticket income to keep pace with the rent increases. This is far above the average attendances Argyle achieved in their last spell in the championship, and somewhat difficult to achieve in a 17,700 capacity stadium.

People keep forgetting there is a very simple solution to the problem of having a limited capacity, and that is to increase ticket prices. The requirement for 19000 is presumably based off current ticket prices. If we get to a stage where we are close to hitting our 17,700 limit (with the new stand) then Brent will just increase the ticket prices. Bad news for fans, but good news for those who run the club!

The clubs ability to generate income isn't really restricted by a smaller capacity, apart from maybe the odd cup match against a big team where we might get 30k if we had the capacity. Ticket prices will just rise if/when it gets to a point where we are coming close to filling the new stadium.

That's a very interesting bit of lateral thinking/investigating from Mr Sainsbury.  Makes you wonder if it was a slip up by Brent and his advisors (akin to the accepting the high budgeted attendence figures for last season as gospel) to sign the council rent deal or if the exit strategy does indeed mean buying the ground before reaching the Championship.

And Flatty you are of course correct ticket prices will be forced to rise.  I've always expected the new notgrandstand to be very prawn sandwich with ordinary REAL fans priced out of it. 

(p.s. how does one subscribe to RoTG)

(p.p.s. I wonder if this will get debated on the other side)

Trying to find out how to get hold of RoTG came across this (scroll down for the Argyle bit) with MR Roberts and Mullender holding court

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Flat_Track_Bully wrote:

Rickler wrote:

  lf promotion success was to be repeated and attendances matched, 19,000 people would be required at each Championship match for Argyle's ticket income to keep pace with the rent increases. This is far above the average attendances Argyle achieved in their last spell in the championship, and somewhat difficult to achieve in a 17,700 capacity stadium.

People keep forgetting there is a very simple solution to the problem of having a limited capacity, and that is to increase ticket prices. The requirement for 19000 is presumably based off current ticket prices. If we get to a stage where we are close to hitting our 17,700 limit (with the new stand) then Brent will just increase the ticket prices. Bad news for fans, but good news for those who run the club!

The clubs ability to generate income isn't really restricted by a smaller capacity, apart from maybe the odd cup match against a big team where we might get 30k if we had the capacity. Ticket prices will just rise if/when it gets to a point where we are coming close to filling the new stadium.

Good point on the face of it and seems a simple answer but I'm really not sure that the 'increased price' profits will quell the losses of bums on seats - Janners are not living in the most affluent of areas and they just won't go if they hike it up!! It's all a depressing mess that's for sure!!

As a subscriber its always a good read.

Diary of an Aviva  

Elias

How does one subscribe?

To subscribe... (as taken from the flyer enclosed in the may issue)

Send a cheque for ten quid payable to DB Hall (**NOT Rub of the Greens) and address it to:

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Thanks fellas.

"Are they? Good old Rickler! Yeah that's great, cheers. Cheques payable to DB Hall please.

Great stuff."

emailed him to say the details are up her and this is his reply.

I took out a subscription recently and bought one as a gift for someone else and Blake was lovely to deal with - really nice chap  

Mine will be in the post on Monday.

I wonder whether Porky reads it or has he gone off this as well?

I used to write articles for ROTG many-many years ago...

Ahh......some else has seen the light!


And it's not shining out of JB's backside!!