3 reasons of a somewhat statistical nature to be cheerful

Well, not necessarily cheerful, but at least to think we can stay up

1. We're catching up - slowly but surely. Our form in our last 12 games of W3 D6 L3 has put us well within touch of safety. It's not promotion form but if we sustain it over the next 18 games, and even improve it slightly, it should be enough to see us scrape home.

2. Our run-in is good. Of the 18 games we have left, 11 of them are against teams who are currently in the bottom half of the table. Of the 7 games we have against top half teams, 5 of them are at home. It doesn't mean the games are 'there for the taking', but it does mean that we go into the vast majority of those games with a good chance of getting points.

3. It's not just about us - other teams are collapsing. While we've been focused on the teams immediately around us - Dagenham, Northampton and Hereford, all of whom have worse recent (6 match and 12 match) records than us - there are other teams who are falling swiftly down the table and will probably be drawn into the mix. Macclesfield is the most obvious one, with 1 win and 8 defeats in the last 12 games. Aldershot - despite their win yesterday - have also dipped badly. That win was their first in 6 and before that they had lost 7 of the previous 11 games. But keep an eye out for Morecambe, who have plunged spectacularly. Comfortably in the third promotion spot as recently as November, they have picked up just 7 points in the last 12 games. Only 7 games ago, they were 21 points ahead of us, now they are 14. If that trajectory is maintained, we'll catch them up with 4 games left to play.

I know it's all ifs, buts and maybes.

However, there are plenty of reasons both within our club and without, why I still feel confident in my prediction that we will stay up - on the last game of the season.

And Wotton to score the goal that keeps us up, of course

And I suspect you were displaying similar optimism last season and the season before that ?

No doubt before that even, you agreed with Nool on trusting in Stapes and looking at how far we've come ?

The reality is that as things stand, we have a weak squad, led by an inexperienced, uninspiring and inarticulate manager.

Things are desperate for England's 13th largest city club. All the positivity in the world won't change a thing.

I actually agree. We won't be far off safety if we do go down. Statistically we're less adrift than we were, and (most importantly) the other teams around us are frankly as shyte as we are.



But I'd love us to sign a striker, win 3 or 4 games and get ourselves some breathing space. Why the aim from the top appears to be finishing 1 pt above relegation on the last day of the season, I just don't understand. We should be looking to drag ourselves out of this crap NOW and finish comfortable mid-table.

What Tringy's trying to say GM, is it's just not good enough, even if we do stay up.

I've thought, statistically speaking, all season that we won't go down on the basis of how many times do 3 relegations on the trot happen. Since the new year my confidence has been shaken due to the lack of DECISIVE action from the top on the football side of things.

We did well to pick up 4 points from the last two home matches but it could so easily only have been one and then the criticism would even have reached pBay.

I do hope the powers that be aren't thinking like that.

The club should be taking positive steps to improve our squad and coaching, rather than relying on the other clubs to fall.

Basing survival on other teams misfortune or poor form, is unbelievably dangerous. Reckless.

GibGreen wrote:

I do hope the powers that be aren't thinking like that.

The club should be taking positive steps to improve our squad and coaching, rather than relying on the other clubs to fall.

Basing survival on other teams misfortune or poor form, is unbelievably dangerous. Reckless.

Very true Gibber. If we don't go down this season, there's little to suggest we won't be backs up against the wall next season. It's already beginning to feel like the worst years of McCauley.