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Rickler

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Mon Mar 07, 2016 2:57 am

Sir Francis Drake wrote:
11 games to go. We have 65 points.

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Play-offs

Min 1pts (1D)
Max 13 pts (4W +1D)
Mean 6 pts (2W)

Promotion

Min 13 pts (4W + 1D)
Max 23 pts (7W + 2D)
Mean 17 pts (5W + 2D)

Champions

Min 18 pts (6W)
Max 32 pts (10W + 2D)
Mean 23 pts (7W + 2D)

We still probably need 6 wins - maybe 5 and the draws will do the rest.

Does anybody have a differing methodology for setting a target we are likely to need better than this one?


Something like guess work you mean?
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Mon Mar 07, 2016 10:23 am

It's just a bit of fun. I would have said that looking back over the last ten games, fifteen games or twenty games then working an average points gained then multiply average points per game by games left for the rest of the season would be more reliable but then factoring in injuries ect. becomes more difficult. Rather than concentrate on other seasons points needed just concentrate on form and averages over a set amount of games.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Mon Mar 07, 2016 10:56 am

Rickler wrote:
Sir Francis Drake wrote:
11 games to go. We have 65 points.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Play-offs

Min 1pts (1D)
Max 13 pts (4W +1D)
Mean 6 pts (2W)

Promotion

Min 13 pts (4W + 1D)
Max 23 pts (7W + 2D)
Mean 17 pts (5W + 2D)

Champions

Min 18 pts (6W)
Max 32 pts (10W + 2D)
Mean 23 pts (7W + 2D)

We still probably need 6 wins - maybe 5 and the draws will do the rest.

Does anybody have a differing methodology for setting a target we are likely to need better than this one?


Something like guess work you mean?

Oooh get you. No need to be so precious.

All predictions are guesswork when it comes down to it, are they not? Haven't I been pretty clear about that all the way along? It's just that some predictions are more guessy than informed but ultimately it'll come down to pot luck as to whether they prove to be accurate or not.

That doesn't stop governments making economic, demographic and Go knows what else projections and nor does it stop businesses or educational establishments target setting. It's very common, you know.

And in this context it does no harm does it?
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:05 am

Amsterdamage wrote:
It's just a bit of fun. I would have said that looking back over the last ten games, fifteen games or twenty games then working an average points gained then multiply average points per game by games left for the rest of the season would be more reliable but then factoring in injuries ect. becomes more difficult. Rather than concentrate on other seasons points needed just concentrate on form and averages over a set amount of games.

The factor that misses out on is the 6 pointer. Tomorrow Accrington play Pompey for instance and whatever their averages the 6 pointer will skew outcome predictions. The other thing is that the more games you do it over the more it will just copy the current league table and the fewer you do it over the more recent results take precedence. There's no harm in trying though it's just that it gets a bit heavy research wise.

Maybe if we were to group source a bunch of outcomes from one of those result predictor programs and then average out? Lots of scope for gut instinct and common sense to be applied (or guesswork as Rickler may prefer to label it) and it'd maybe cough up a little competition to see who got it most right?

Which is, of course, entirely subjective and largely pontless but as you so rightly identify it's just a bit of fun, amd what's wrong with that?, and nobody is forcing anybody to take part - or even read it in the first place if they think it's all a load of old guff.
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:24 am

This is my prediction based on last ten games but not factoring the six pointers.
NH 106
Ox. 84
Ar. 79
Dons77
Gas. 75
Acc. 74
Pom 74

As it is we will just squeak it IF the fact we have an injury ravaged squad doesn't have an impact. Losing Brunt and Reid not scoring in a while makes me think we may just miss IF we don't replace ANY players. Dons are the surprise package not the Gas as I thought.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:48 am

Using [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] I have just guessed the result of every remaining game resulting in this table.

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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:49 am

I might have been a little ambitious regarding our games... but there you go.

81 points to get promoted according to me.

Iggy made it 78.
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alannotivvy

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:24 pm

Unlikely we'll be promoted at Pompey then?

Just got my train tickets for that one.
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Mon Mar 07, 2016 2:42 pm

Sir Francis Drake wrote:
I might have been a little ambitious regarding our games... but there you go.

81 points to get promoted according to me.

Iggy made it 78.

Just worked out on ten game form, nothing else, if asked to predict I would say that due to Brunt being out we are likely to drop a couple of points and if we keep our third place it may well be down to goal difference. I think it will be tight.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Tue Mar 08, 2016 9:53 pm

Here's the current table.

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Pompey lead the chasers and have 11 games to go. WDWDWDWDWDW would be pretty good for them and give them another 23 points meaning 83 points are needed to stay ahead of them.

For us that means 18 points or 6W (or maybe 5W + 3D) from our last 11.
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Elias

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Tue Mar 08, 2016 9:57 pm

We need a win this saturday !!!
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Freathy

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:39 pm

5pm Saturday only 3 points will seprate us from Pompey and Bristol Rovers. It's over.

Eeeeeeee saved us jocolor
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Tue Mar 15, 2016 5:46 pm

10 games to go. We still have 65 points.

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In our last 10 games we have accumulated 13 points. If we replicate that we'll end up on 78 points which would equal the total required only twice in the previous 10 seasons.

We need to buck our ideas up fast.


Last edited by Sir Francis Drake on Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:45 am; edited 1 time in total
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Freathy

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Tue Mar 15, 2016 7:14 pm

The absolute most we can realistically get over the 10 games is 9 points. It's all over.
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:55 pm

13 points from last 10 games affraid

think freathy maybe proved correct.




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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Tue Mar 15, 2016 10:00 pm

Oxford have just crushed the Daggers 4-0 giving them a far superior GD to ourselves.
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Freathy

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Mar 16, 2016 6:54 am

As far as I'm concerned the top 3 is now irrelevent as we have no chance of finishing there in May.  The question should be will we make the play-offs.  Answer: just!
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Mar 16, 2016 9:42 am

Accy v Wycombe tonight, Wycombe to nick a point or even three would be ideal.
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:11 pm

I quite fancy them to do just that.
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:40 pm

If Wycombe win tonight that'll leave us 9 points clear of 8th placed Orient whom we still have to visit, yet another potentially huge game we could bottle just to keep play-off hopes alive.
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Lord Tisdale

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:49 pm

Coxside_Green wrote:
If Wycombe win tonight that'll leave us 9 points clear of 8th placed Orient whom we still have to visit, yet another potentially huge game we could bottle just to keep play-off hopes alive.

Now you are just being silly, you would have to go on the worst run in the history of terrible runs and just about every other result would have to go the way of the teams in the frame, you are not that bad and they are not that good, only the Gas and Accy are showing any real consistently good form, my nephew is a big Pompey fan and he would be pulling his hair out if he had any.

You will make the play offs at the very least, that in itself should be seen as a success.
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:14 pm

After being five clear at the top at Crimbo it's nothing short of a disaster and the fans should be throwing shit at Brent never mind giving the useless cnut a barracking. 3 points off the gas and they are flying nothing short of a big wwwwww streak will save us unlike Brent who has us in an induced coma. Did I hear on the comms on Sat that the Speccy wanker has bought in someone who has played 15 mins for Fleetwood Town? What a feckin joke.
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Mar 16, 2016 11:31 pm

Amsterdamage wrote:
After being five clear at the top at Crimbo it's nothing short of a disaster and the fans should be throwing shit at Brent never mind giving the useless cnut a barracking. 3 points off the gas and they are flying nothing short of a big wwwwww streak will save us unlike Brent who has us in an induced coma. Did I hear on the comms on Sat that the Speccy wanker has bought in someone who has played 15 mins for Fleetwood Town? What a feckin joke.
We have to match other teams around us so your requirement of 6 x wins is valid only if the other clubs around the top also get 6 x wins. Do you feel your expletives add more weight to your comments.?Question
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Thu Mar 17, 2016 12:01 am

Feckin aye.
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Sat Mar 19, 2016 5:49 pm

Averaging 1 point a game now (over the last ten) we should thank our lucky stars were not slugging it out with the bottom two.
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