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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: What next?   Sun Dec 27, 2015 12:26 pm

We have played 23 league games and are halfway through the season with 46 points.

Last season, which ended in a failed play-off campaign, at this stage we were on 37 points (7th; 7 points behind top place; 6 pts behind 3rd). We are, by every reasonable metric, that far ahead of the game that an ultimate play-off position would be huge disappointment.

We go into the new year in the finest fettle we've been in for years. We seem to have ridden out the worst of our injury crisis and despite some recent disappointments we're still 2 points clear at the top, 6 pts ahead of 4th spot and 9pts ahead of 7th.

So what do we need to do, other than keep winning, in our final 23 games?

Here's a summary of the point totals reached over the last 10 seasons for teams to get the last play-off spot, be promoted and win the league. It doesn't record the lowest total that would have done for each which in some cases would have been lower but it suggests a benchmark for what might need to do.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Using these figures in our next 23 games we need to hit:

Play-offs

Min 20 pts (6W + 2D)
Max 32 pts (10W + 2D)
Mean 25 pts (8W + 1D)

Promotion

Min 32 pts (10W + 1D)
Max 42 pts (14W)
Mean 36 pts (12W)

Champions

Min 37 pts (12W + 1D)
Max 51 pts (17W)
Mean 42 pts (14W)
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Sun Dec 27, 2015 3:13 pm

Or, put it another way - win half our remaining games, we'll go up. Barring another injury crisis, I think we will do it. Don't care about the title - just want out of the 4th Division
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harvetheslayer

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Sun Dec 27, 2015 3:18 pm

If the Reluctant one will wedge in with a few signings next month without flogging off the existing assets it would be hard to see Argyle not making the top 3 come seasons end
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Sun Dec 27, 2015 5:46 pm

harvetheslayer wrote:
If the Reluctant one will wedge in with a few signings next month without flogging off the existing assets it would be hard to see Argyle not making the top 3 come seasons end

That is pretty much the size of it.

In 9 0f the last 10 seasons the team top at Xmas has been automatically promoted. You have to go back to Grimsby (lost the play-off final to Cheltenham 1-0) in 2005/6 to find one that wasn't.

We'll be trendbucking if we don't go up.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Tue Dec 29, 2015 11:00 pm

In our last 22 games:

Play-offs

Min 20 pts (6W + 2D)
Max 32 pts (10W + 2D)
Mean 25 pts (8W + 1D)

Promotion

Min 29 pts (9W + 1D)
Max 39 pts (13W)
Mean 33 pts (11W)

Champions

Min 34 pts (11W + 1D)
Max 48 pts (16W)
Mean 39 pts (13W)
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tigertony

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Dec 30, 2015 1:14 am

Of course when we get RR, Carey and Boateng back it will feel like 3 high quality signings.
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Freathy

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Dec 30, 2015 9:32 am

tigertony wrote:
Of course when we get RR, Carey and Boateng back it will feel like 3 high quality signings.

Can't see Boateng coming back -his loan is up isn't it? If Palace loan him again perhaps it should be to a L1 or even Championship club.
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Dec 30, 2015 9:53 am

Freathy wrote:
tigertony wrote:
Of course when we get RR, Carey and Boateng back it will feel like 3 high quality signings.

Can't see Boateng coming back -his loan is up isn't it?  If Palace loan him again perhaps it should be to a L1 or even Championship club.  

Depends how comfortable he felt with Adams. In which case, he'll prefer a Championship race at a club he knows and will return. Palace will almost certainly be happy with his form under Adams.

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Dec 30, 2015 11:26 am

We need another 33 points from 22 games then to gain promotion.

This means we can afford to fall from averaging 2 points per match, as we have done all season, to averaging 1.5 points a match.

So if we're at 3/4 our first half season pace, that will be enough.

That's very encouraging, knowing that we still have a window to address our weaknesses, and still have our three best players to return, as they ought to, within the next month.
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VillageGreen

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Dec 30, 2015 12:51 pm

Argyle just got to hang in there, promotion is the goal and I feel that the recent slump in form is now over following the two recent victories.

Sides below Argyle are all due a wobbly spell.
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Dec 30, 2015 3:27 pm

Looking good for promotion this season - if contracts for the key players can be extended for next season then a solid finish in League 1 seems likely.

Let's hope Brent gets an opportunity to sell up before he tries to get Ministand 2.0 off the ground
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Les Miserable

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Dec 30, 2015 3:40 pm

Pafcintheplace wrote:
Looking good for promotion this season - if contracts for the key players can be extended for next season then a solid finish in League 1 seems likely.

Let's hope Brent gets an opportunity to sell up before he tries to get Ministand 2.0 off the ground


Wow there.....let's not run before we can walk.
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harvetheslayer

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Dec 30, 2015 4:03 pm

VillageGreen wrote:
Argyle just got to hang in there, promotion is the goal and I feel that the recent slump in form is now over following the two recent victories.

Sides below Argyle are all due a wobbly spell.

Three Victories not two..... bounce
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Dec 30, 2015 4:11 pm

Les Miserable wrote:
Pafcintheplace wrote:
Looking good for promotion this season - if contracts for the key players can be extended for next season then a solid finish in League 1 seems likely.

Let's hope Brent gets an opportunity to sell up before he tries to get Ministand 2.0 off the ground


Wow there.....let's not run before we can walk.


Of course there's a promotion to win first, but if 5 or 6 of PAFC's best players can be secured for next season, that would form the spine of a side that could achieve a mid table finish in League 1 imo

Will be interesting to see who else goes up, 2 from Pompey, Oxford and Cobblers for the auto spots I'd have thought
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Dec 30, 2015 4:13 pm

VillageGreen wrote:
Argyle just got to hang in there, promotion is the goal and I feel that the recent slump in form is now over following the two recent victories.

Sides below Argyle are all due a wobbly spell.

We've had as kind a Christmas run as we could expect. January's fixtures don't look as kind. I wouldn't say we were back in form yet, certainly not back to our best that's for sure.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Dec 30, 2015 4:55 pm

ejh wrote:
We need another 33 points from 22 games then to gain promotion.

This means we can afford to fall from averaging 2 points per match, as we have done all season, to averaging 1.5 points a match.

So if we're at 3/4 our first half season pace, that will be enough.

That's very encouraging, knowing that we still have a window to address our weaknesses, and still have our three best players to return, as they ought to, within the next month.

Not exactly. The 33 points will reach the average points score for a promoted side in the last 10 years. Being a measure of central tendency this means that for each one higher there is a corresponding one lower or, essentially, with an extra 33 points we are 50/50 to go up: we could, unlikely though it is, go up with fewer points or fail to go up with more.

Every point above the 33 makes it ever-increasingly likely that we will go up.
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sufferedsince 68

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Wed Dec 30, 2015 5:09 pm

Another loan fiasco like last year or a Jimmy firesale could easily derail the season, its not over till its over twenty odd games to go so it will be interesting thats forshore. Lets hope Adams stays thats more important than any player i would say.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Sun Jan 03, 2016 10:53 pm

In our last 21 games:

Play-offs

Min 17 pts (5W + 2D)
Max 29 pts (9W + 2D)
Mean 22 pts (7W + 1D)

Promotion

Min 26 pts (8W + 1D)
Max 36 pts (12W)
Mean 30 pts (10W)

Champions

Min 31 pts (10W + 1D)
Max 45 pts (15W)
Mean 36 pts (12W)
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Tgwu

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:25 pm

Here are the teams we have left to play, so which are the ones we are likely to take points from?

Northampton H

Stevenage H

Bristol Rovers A

Wycombe H

Yeovil A

Mansfield H

Crawley Town A

Notts County H

Barnet A

Oxford Utd H

Accrington Stanley A

Luton H

Morecambe A

York H

Exeter A

AFC Wimbledon H

Portsmouth A

Leyton Orient A

Dag & Red H

Cambridge Utd A

Hartlepool H
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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Mon Jan 04, 2016 12:20 am

All the teams ending in A.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Thu Jan 14, 2016 7:32 pm

In our last 20 games:

Play-offs

Min 17 pts (5W + 2D)
Max 29 pts (9W + 2D)
Mean 22 pts (7W + 1D)

Promotion

Min 26 pts (8W + 1D)
Max 36 pts (12W)
Mean 30 pts (10W)

Champions

Min 31 pts (10W + 1D)
Max 45 pts (15W)
Mean 36 pts (12W)

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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:00 pm

In our last 19 games we might need:

Play-offs

Min 11 pts (3W + 2D)
Max 23 pts (9W + 2D)
Mean 16 pts (5W + 1D)

Promotion

Min 23 pts (7W + 2D)
Max 33 pts (11W)
Mean 27 pts (9W)

Champions

Min 28 pts (9W + 1D)
Max 42 pts (14W)
Mean 33 pts (11W)
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RegGreen



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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:02 am

One good thing we lose every game we wont get relegated laugh
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Freathy

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:56 am

From what I saw on Saturday I can't see us getting 9 wins from 19 games unless there is strengthening of the team.
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pepsipete

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PostSubject: Re: What next?   Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:12 am

You can never see Argyle winning at all!
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