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 Are we optimistic for next season?

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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sat May 26, 2018 5:25 pm

I've seen, not here I hasten to add, lots of comments along the lines of "it doesn't matter that we missed the play-offs - we'll do it next year" and so on.

There's been similar comments acclaiming our year-on-year progress in the Brent era (ignoring the successive 89th place finishes in '11/'12 and '12/'13 when had we gone any lower we'd've been out of the league) and a general assumption that next season will see us advance on the 51st we managed last time which is consistent with what we'll need to do to win a play-off spot next time.

I don't think that further progress is anything like as likely as some seem to.

For one thing moving up the ladder gets harder and harder the higher you get whoever you are. For us being 89th was, frankly, embarassing. I accept that we were pants, ended up where our (lack of) quality dictated we would and deserved (as a team) little better but as a club it was an aberration in our lengthy history and represented a huge opportunity.

As a club it took a bizarre and toxic combination of illogicality, greed, incompetence and negligence for us to end up there and it really wasn't rocket science to to realise that we needed to stop being illogical, greedy, incompetent and negligent as a pre-requisite to making progress. In short just stop being totally crap off the pitch and on the pitch things would inevitably improve and they did.

They didn't even need to improve that much given the opposition, at that level, that we had to beat and sure enough we did start to pick up a bit and once we did start to pick up we had reversed the momentum and direction of travel. It was all good.

The point here is that it was always likely to happen. It had happened before: when Sturrock arrived we were 91st and we all know what happened next. That success wasn't a flash in the pan; the fact that we were that low to start with was the (kind of reverse of) a flash in the pan and it had taken a toxic mixture of illogicality, greed, incompetence and negligence under McCauley for us to end up there. In short we just stopped being totally crap off the pitch and on the pitch things inevitably improved.

So in the last few years we have made welcome progress and gone up from the 89th to 51st rung on the ladder.

In doing so we have emerged from an untidy ruck of clubs with literally no resources to do better or bedevilled, like we were, by astonishingly poor decision-making into a situation where simply not being shockingly bad is no longer enough to move forward. It needs more than that now.

Another factor is that 51st, for us, is pretty much bang average. Obviously it is hugely better than 89th so if your reference points only go back that far then right now we are absolutely feckin amazing. No question about it. Hang out the bunting and bake a celebratory cake. Whoopee!! Thing is 89th should not be our reference for success: it should be a salutatory reminder of how crap things can get; 51st should be our reference point: that is the reference point against which our success or otherwise should be measured.

To mix metaphors we have picked the low-hanging fruit and stolen the easy yards. Our problem now isn't even so much moving forward but staying where we are and planning to stay where we are, the oft-mentioned "consolidation" I suppose, would mean an end to that precious and revered year-on-year progress.

I mention all of this with no reference at all to our current off-pitch strategies. Important though they are they operate against the background that I have described and that background is inescapable.

If the Brent/Adams axis can genuinely move us significantly forward from this point it will be truly remarkable and praise-worthy. If they only move us forward one place then we end up in a play-off position. That's great if it happens. If they move us forward only 5 places we'll be promoted and that'd be utterly fantastic.

Am I confident that either of those things will happen? No. No more confident than I would be when calling "heads" at the toss of a coin.


Last edited by Sir Francis Drake on Sat May 26, 2018 5:51 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Earwegoagain

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sat May 26, 2018 5:49 pm

At the moment no Im not optimistic. But if we sign a whole bunch of fit, proven players I may change my mind at the start of the season. I prepare to be underwhelmed.
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beesrus

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sat May 26, 2018 6:13 pm

No, I'm not optimistic at all. I fully expect the banker boys to still be running the show in a year's time, with little change to the culture. Fortunately, there is more to life than local pro footy.
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akagreengull
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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sat May 26, 2018 6:32 pm

The signs are not promising, low Brent austerity budget, Derek
Scrabbling around for freebies, fanbase believing in the untouchable dream under a shyster.
I"m with Bees on this one, more to life than a mismanaged
Third tier footy club.
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Angry

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sat May 26, 2018 6:48 pm

Depends on who del brings in and if we will actually have an competitive squad. Pre season fixtures can be improved i feel as its a pile of shit for a league one team to play in order to be ready for a long hard season.
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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sat May 26, 2018 7:04 pm

Hard to say at this point. Ask the same question on the day of the first pre-season friendly, let’s see what the squad looks like then
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Jethro

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sat May 26, 2018 7:04 pm

I'd like to be , but can't see DA getting the backing he needs.
Forget all this Brent out stuff been pedaling IF he backs the manager and puts money into the team, mankover and all be happy for him to stay.
I just can't see it though, I'd like to be proved wrong,
a 15k blissett style signing wont cut it either tbh
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P.O.I
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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sat May 26, 2018 9:47 pm

Hard to tell yet. But, if I was a betting man - I'd be getting the rope and razor blades ready in anticipation! Laughing

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sufferedsince 68

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sat May 26, 2018 10:15 pm

No, a relegation battle looms as Akkeron Man expects the Miracle Worker to compete with a league two budget, which is strange when Argo are the fifth best supportive club?.......... where is the money going?
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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sat May 26, 2018 10:22 pm

sufferedsince 68 wrote:
No, a relegation battle looms as Akkeron Man expects the Miracle Worker to compete with a league two budget, which is strange when Argo are the fifth best supportive club?.......... where is the money going?

I'd make up a Photoshop poster to tell you where it's going. Unfortunately, sadly and almost 100% nailed on, I would expect another phone call to my employers! LOL.


To quote an infamous pigspratarian preacher - it'll all end in a straight jacket - mark my words! ld

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sufferedsince 68

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sat May 26, 2018 10:30 pm

P.O.I wrote:
sufferedsince 68 wrote:
No, a relegation battle looms as Akkeron Man expects the Miracle Worker to compete with a league two budget, which is strange when Argo are the fifth best supportive club?.......... where is the money going?

I'd make up a Photoshop poster to tell you where it's going. Unfortunately, sadly and almost 100% nailed on,  I would expect another phone call to my employers! LOL.


To quote an infamous pigspratarian preacher -  it'll all end in a straight jacket - mark my words! ld
lol! lol! lol! lol! Chopper, monitors all the free speech forums, before reporting back to Bungo and Jimmy....... the sad Cnut! cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers
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Tringreen

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sun May 27, 2018 5:52 am

akagreengull wrote:
The signs are not promising, low Brent austerity budget, Derek
Scrabbling around for freebies, fanbase believing in the untouchable dream under a shyster.
I"m with Bees on this one, more to life than a mismanaged
Third tier footy club.

Welcome to my world. Almost a decade and counting ! Still can't get the club out of my blood but thank goodness that in my world, head rules heart

Expectations have been deliberately dumbed down and HP has largely become 'Wannabe and Mug Punter Heaven'.
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akagreengull
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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sun May 27, 2018 9:01 am

Sixth most likely team to be relegated according to oddschecker. Still always good to be optimistic eh?  


Next Season Relegation
Accrington (5/4), Gillingham (11/, Wycombe (11/, Walsall (15/, AFC Wimbledon (9/4), Plymouth (7/2), Fleetwood (9/2)
raised eyebrow
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Charlie Wood

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sun May 27, 2018 10:10 am

If, as is likely, we start the season with another raft of new journeymen trying to mould into a team then we could have another disastrous start. Then we're dependent on Derek the miracle worker providing a similar resurrection as happened this season, I can't see that happening again.
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Freathy

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sun May 27, 2018 10:12 am

No-one should be optimistic about next season. Brent's 'budget' has already forced Threlkeld and Bradley elsewhere with more sure to follow. DA, in the unlikely event he's still manager, having to rebuild yet again with released players. A relegation scrap in a run down three sided stadium is what awaits all you lucky season ticket holders in 18/19.

BRENT OUT NOW
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Earwegoagain

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sun May 27, 2018 11:12 am

Using Frannys logic we need to climb 31 places to reach the prem. in the last seven years we have climbed 38 places so far so another six years should see us mixing it up with the Arse and Chelsea, trust in Brent. jocolor
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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sun May 27, 2018 11:41 am

Earwegoagain wrote:
Using Frannys logic we need to climb 31 places to reach the prem. in the last seven years we have climbed 38 places so far so another six years should see us mixing it up with the Arse and Chelsea, trust in Brent. jocolor


I reckon the likes of Fleetwood, Burton, Shrewsbury any number of 'smaller' teams than Akkeron Austerity Argo would have got to the Prem before us by then. geek

Seven more years, seven more years cheers
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sun May 27, 2018 12:14 pm

Earwegoagain wrote:
Using Frannys logic we need to climb 31 places to reach the prem. in the last seven years we have climbed 38 places so far so another six years should see us mixing it up with the Arse and Chelsea, trust in Brent. jocolor

Well... yes. Except... no.

A good proportion of my point was that it gets harder and harder to progress they higher you get so it gets kind of exponentially more difficult to continue to progress and all we have done so far is clock up the easy bit.

From here it gets harder to continue and 51st is pretty much the tipping point for where this happens to us.

On the other hand PL in 6 years seems like a nice ambitious, but not totally unachievable (yeah - I know), 5 year plan (as it were).

Our progress over the last 6 years, welcome though it is, is hardly staggeringly amazing whereas getting into the PL would be off the scale of expectation for even the most optimistic of us.
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sufferedsince 68

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sun May 27, 2018 12:26 pm

Freathy wrote:
No-one should be optimistic about next season.  Brent's 'budget' has already forced Threlkeld and Bradley elsewhere with more sure to follow.  DA, in the unlikely event he's still manager, having to rebuild yet again with released players.  A relegation scrap in a run down three sided stadium is what awaits all you lucky season ticket holders in 18/19.

BRENT OUT NOW
All the best players will be going without a doubt, Adams will be forced into the bargain bucket at footballs Poundland again, a grim relegation battle at Bombsite Brentihad awaits foreshore.
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Earwegoagain

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sun May 27, 2018 1:04 pm

Sir Francis Drake wrote:
Earwegoagain wrote:
Using Frannys logic we need to climb 31 places to reach the prem. in the last seven years we have climbed 38 places so far so another six years should see us mixing it up with the Arse and Chelsea, trust in Brent. jocolor

Well... yes. Except... no.

A good proportion of my point was that it gets harder and harder to progress they higher you get so it gets kind of exponentially more difficult to continue to progress and all we have done so far is clock up the easy bit.

From here it gets harder to continue and 51st is pretty much the tipping point for where this happens to us.

On the other hand PL in 6 years seems like a nice ambitious, but not totally unachievable (yeah - I know), 5 year plan (as it were).

Our progress over the last 6 years, welcome though it is, is hardly staggeringly amazing whereas getting into the PL would be off the scale of expectation for even the most optimistic of us.

Hence my Aviva/Jester thingy. In another six years IMO we will be more or less where we are now. I'd be amazed if we made the CCC even for a season.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Sun May 27, 2018 4:46 pm

You may well be right. Who knows?

Like I said you might reasonably expect us to be 51st or thereabouts. Not good. Not bad. Par (if such a thing exists at all).

Staying here would be no bad thing but nor would it be a good thing. Once again: par.

But improving even one position puts us in a play-off spot and after that who knows?

It is beginning to look like if we aim to ever win this league again we'll have to beat a Wigan or a Blackburn or a Sunderland who have flunked out of the division above and that won't be easy under current conditions.
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Graiser

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Mon May 28, 2018 7:14 pm

Not sure about optimism but I’ve a bigger expectation for next season than last season.
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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Mon May 28, 2018 7:35 pm

I think the Taylor/Carey/lameiras axis was almost unplanned, but it bore fruit for 3 months. It wasn't capitalised on, far from it. I suspect that axis won't be as successful again, a bit like a quick love affair. I also expect Taylor to do his now normal half a season at most. But can't imagine the start to the season to be as bad as last season.
All in all, the grass will grow, and some will watch it, albeit in that wonderful Lyndhurst horseshoe. A proper 3 sided ground at last.
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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Mon May 28, 2018 7:48 pm

beesrus wrote:
I think the Taylor/Carey/lameiras axis was almost unplanned, but it bore fruit for 3 months. It wasn't capitalised on, far from it. I suspect that axis won't be as successful again, a bit like a quick love affair. I also expect Taylor to do his now normal half a season at most. But can't imagine the start to the season to be as bad as last season.
All in all, the grass will grow, and some will watch it, albeit in that wonderful Lyndhurst horseshoe. A proper 3 sided ground at last.

It was always planned, but Taylor’s injury cocked it up.
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beesrus

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PostSubject: Re: Are we optimistic for next season?   Mon May 28, 2018 7:59 pm

No it wasn't. Lameiras was employed to take the place of Carey. Carey then signed at the last minute.
Lameiras didn't start in the same line up as Carey until months into the season.
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