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 How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?

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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Feb 26, 2017 6:55 pm

harvetheslayer wrote:
Previous years points targets completely irrelevant means absolutely nothing. Very different league this year we'd have expected Carlisle and Doncaster to win yesterday but managed a single pont between them

Adams will be tactically looking at the table knowing which games its imperative not to lose against. Yesterday perfect example and Carlisle will be the next.  Teams from bottom clearly capable of beating all teams at the top

I think looking at fixtures this last hour of all the top teams I reckon 82 will do it this season

It's a very different league every year (and every year sees unlikely results - we did it twice! - and unexpected teams coming in to form at the right time, 6 pointers etc) but bunch enough seasons together and some sort of likely target emerges...

My suggested 85 points is (mean +2) which is a total that only once in the last 10 years has not been more than enough (so our evetual target is likely to be a little lower). Take off the arbitrary 2 that I added to be on the safe side and we're back to 83 and you suggest 82... We're not worlds apart here and none of us can be entirely confident about the outcome of anything yet to happen. Even 82 might be more than enough.

The only constant, the only certainty is that everybody plays 46 games.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Feb 26, 2017 6:57 pm

In fact thinking on we got very unexpected results at the tail end of 3 (not 2) times out of our 6 seasons in League2/Div 4.
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tigertony

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:00 am

Moist_Von_Lipwig wrote:
Freathy wrote:
We've got to get 23 points from 14 games in relegation form.  Simply not going to happen.

Going on current form alone (last 6 games) we would get 18 points. Pompey would be 5 better than us (not enough to catch us).

There are also around 10 "6 pointers" to play involving the current top 7.

Interesting to see where the current top 7 are in the form table and who the top 4 form teams are.....

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]


Just take each game as it comes. We have the points and it's up to the others to catch us.

A few ups and downs to come but I'm quite confident that this will be our season..........

Notts County doing OK! I hope fans don't think it'll be easy on Tuesday because of their league position. We played a team at home couple of weeks back who were near the bottom and on an awful run and ....... can't even talk about it. Had Mansfield got Steve Evans in about a month earlier they would be a lot closer now.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Mar 05, 2017 9:17 pm

34 games gone, 12 to go. 65 points in the bag. We have an 8 point lead over 4th place (currently Luton).

20 points to go. Maybe.

7W or 6W+2D or 5W+6D.

Or less if the target turns out to be less than 85.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Mar 05, 2017 9:40 pm

Remaining fixtures.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

I'm expecting at least 5 wins (Morecambe, Accrington, Crawley, Newport, Crewe) out of that lot and would hope for a couple others along the way.

I suppose what I'm saying is that I now expect us to be promoted automatically.
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Greenskin

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Mar 05, 2017 11:57 pm

Sir Francis Drake wrote:
Remaining fixtures.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

I'm expecting at least 5 wins (Morecambe, Accrington, Crawley, Newport, Crewe) out of that lot and would hope for a couple others along the way.

I suppose what I'm saying is that I now expect us to be promoted automatically.

Judging by Argyle's rather schizophrenic results against top and bottom teams this season, wouldn't have thought it was wise to expect any predictability from the remaining fixtures.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 06, 2017 12:21 am

You're right.

We'll probably actually beat Donny and Pompey and lose the others.
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Dick Trickle



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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 06, 2017 5:28 am

Not even bothered. There is simply no-one coming out of the pack. We're second, not third, so need Carlisle AND one other to close the gap. It's not happening. Expect us to be promoted at Colchester.
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Freathy

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 06, 2017 8:10 am

We are at best a very poor team. But when we're at our worst (Notts County) we are easily by far the worst team in this division. It's a combination of luck and other teams around us also being poor and not picking up points at crucial times that has kept us where we are. If this continues then obviously we'll cling on in the top 3. But looking at the run-in fixtures getting a minimum of 5 wins is a very very big ask for a team as poor as Argo. I don't think it's going to happen.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 06, 2017 1:37 pm

Dick Trickle wrote:
Not even bothered. There is simply no-one coming out of the pack. We're second, not third, so need Carlisle AND one other to close the gap. It's not happening. Expect us to be promoted at Colchester.

I would certainly expect a definite target to be known by the Colchester game. Could well be there that we hit it.

Didn't we win at Lincoln under Sturrock and the team celebrated as promoted because they'd hit Sturrock's target even though it was lower than the mathematical possibility at the time?

And then we celebrated a couple more times at away games after that!
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 06, 2017 2:42 pm

Promoted at Pompey would be good !!
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alannotivvy

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 06, 2017 2:50 pm

bleddy hope so bounce bounce bounce bounce flag knicking knobbers
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:22 pm

harvetheslayer wrote:
Promoted at Pompey would be good !!


Now that would be bloody excellent and the large Argyle following could rub Pompey noses right in it.
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Tgwu

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:31 pm

Yes please, Grandson will be a mascot at that game
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:11 pm

He'll be on the telly then.

Baggo Twitter wrote:
Our game against Portsmouth on Good Friday is now a 2.30pm kick off, and will be televised by Sky Sports.
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Tgwu

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:42 pm

He just walked in with a big grin on his face,
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tigertony

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:55 pm

VillageGreen wrote:
harvetheslayer wrote:
Promoted at Pompey would be good !!


Now that would be bloody excellent and the large Argyle following could rub Pompey noses right in it.
The whole country could watch. That sounds so exciting I've just ......... Embarassed Embarassed
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:13 am

There's too many imponderables to make an accurate prediction but for the first time this season I feel that we will fall short of the automatics.
Given our away form you might think that the run in of 4 home matches and 7 aways would suit us.
However, you'd sooner be playing Mansfield, Wycombe, Doncaster, Crawley, Portsmouth, Colchester and Grimsby at Home Park despite the difficulties.
Even the home matches we do have will be tough with those teams having players fighting for their futures.

Argyle's contract situation with players appearances triggering any new contracts could backfire. Adams could be forced to leave out or put in players that doesn't suit his agenda for next season.
Having said that I wouldn't think he'd be here if they failed again.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:59 pm

A massive win at Mansfield is a huge step forward with the other results, Doncaster apart, being very good for us.
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jabba the gut ecfc



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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:25 pm

This is almost certainly the Saturday that all but sends you up. The other challengers are so erratic it's very difficult to believe two sides are going to bridge the gap in the time available.

You can stop panicking about yet another slip-up and start panicking about Brent and his Praetorian guard living large for the next few months. Just as long as you don't win the league...
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:37 pm

We have 68 points with 10 games to go.

We are 10 points ahead of 4th placed Stevenage who could end up with a maximum of 88 points if they win every game so there's a worst-case scenario target of 7 wins.

Luton have a game in hand and could get to 90 points with 11 wins making an even-worst scenario of 8 wins.

I think the 85 point target is now waaaaay too high and am reducing it to 82 so 14 points to go.

5W or 4W +2D or 3W +5D required. Maybe less.

The away games at Pompey and Donny look like they will be pointlessly epic.
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sufferedsince 68

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sat Mar 11, 2017 6:40 pm

Since Brent, cashed in on Purrington, four wins two draws and four defeats from ten games.
That form over the next ten will see us fail, argo must improve or Jimmy, will have won.
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:01 pm

Sir Francis Drake wrote:
We have 68 points with 10 games to go.

We are 10 points ahead of 4th placed Stevenage who could end up with a maximum of 88 points if they win every game so there's a worst-case scenario target of 7 wins.

Luton have a game in hand and could get to 90 points with 11 wins making an even-worst scenario of 8 wins.

I think the 85 point target is now waaaaay too high and am reducing it to 82 so 14 points to go.

5W or 4W +2D or 3W +5D required. Maybe less.

The away games at Pompey and Donny look like they will be pointlessly epic.




Luton's game in hand is against Newport, so that won't be too easy for the Hatters.

Can't argue with 82 points for promotion. The side will look at the table right now and pencil in what they think they will need to secure it.

I can't see Stevenage doing a Bristol Rovers and fly up into the top three.
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Innocent Egbunike

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:11 pm

sufferedsince 68 wrote:
Since Brent, cashed in on Purrington, four wins two draws and four defeats from ten games.
That form over the next ten will see us fail, argo must improve or Jimmy, will have won.

Don't think it will. 14 points would put us on 82, which should be enough this time out. Pompey now going really well but even if they overhaul us the next team has to come from 10 points back. Also, we are officially better away from home with more away wins than home, with less away games played...so 6 from 10 left away from home is looking an advantage.

If we win on Tuesday (we will, big, as I'll be there), we'll start to look out of sight with 9 games left.

As a side note, assuming we get promoted, I hope Pompey do too. Bar Sheffield Utd, probably the best-supported club in the bottom two divisions.
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Freathy

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:18 pm

Looking at the remaining fixtures, if anyone thinks Argo is remotely capable of winning 5 or even 3 of those, all I can say is where have you been the past 4 weeks. It simply isn't going to happen.
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