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 How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?

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Freathy

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:28 am

akagreengull wrote:
Innocent Egbunike wrote:
Freathy wrote:
Very long way to go yet.  24 points still to play for and Stevenage, Pompey and Luton won't drop nearly  as many as Argo over the final eight games.  It could well go down to the final game with Argo needing something at Grimsby.

Bowlax, Mr Freath. Your race is almost run this season, I'm afraid. Mind you, you'll be able to have a field day next season unless we see some money from nowhere for squad strengthening.

Old Freathers might need to up his gloomy inaccurate predictions to Argo losing 3 - 0 every game next season laugh
Imagine green Jimmy's lip is already of a quiver at the thought of manager and fans thinking there might need to be more investment to keep us in League 1. raised eyebrow


But then I forgot, there is always the FA cup windfall/Purrington million plus money tucked away, you know the money the board doesn't want to talk about. deadhorse

Yep, a brent budget means relegation is a given next season......IF we go up. But one season in the 'big time' will be enough for the grateful brentophiles.
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Czarcasm

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:56 am

Sir Francis Drake wrote:
It's a bit unfair to judge Threlkeld as a full back when he is clearly a midfield player first and foremost. Especially when half the time he's playing on the wrong wing.

What he brings is spirit, commitment, effort, bravery and energy to the team. Were he more offensive in approach he could be the next David Norris.

And while comparing current players with ones from the past does anybody else see John Matthews every time they look at Sarcevic?

I'm not judging Threlkeld solely as a full-back. Giving the ball away too easily or mistiming tackles will flag up whatever position he plays. Also if other players are better than him is his/your preferred role then that would add weight to my view that Adams asking him to do a job in league2 at full back is one thing. Asking him to do it in a league above would be a bridge too far. Hence my assertion that despite his engine, being a willing runner only gets you so far.
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harvetheslayer

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:17 am

Freathy wrote:
akagreengull wrote:
Innocent Egbunike wrote:
Freathy wrote:
Very long way to go yet.  24 points still to play for and Stevenage, Pompey and Luton won't drop nearly  as many as Argo over the final eight games.  It could well go down to the final game with Argo needing something at Grimsby.

Bowlax, Mr Freath. Your race is almost run this season, I'm afraid. Mind you, you'll be able to have a field day next season unless we see some money from nowhere for squad strengthening.

Old Freathers might need to up his gloomy inaccurate predictions to Argo losing 3 - 0 every game next season laugh
Imagine green Jimmy's lip is already of a quiver at the thought of manager and fans thinking there might need to be more investment to keep us in League 1. raised eyebrow


But then I forgot, there is always the FA cup windfall/Purrington million plus money tucked away, you know the money the board doesn't want to talk about. deadhorse

Yep, a brent budget means relegation is a given next season......IF we go up.  But one season in the 'big time' will be enough for the grateful brentophiles.

Yes the problem will be that gates will hardly average much higher at best and a lower league position will bring lower gates than this season. Hard to see where Adams goes with this Chairman and Gormless CEO
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Fri Mar 24, 2017 10:43 am

tigertony wrote:
Sir Francis Drake wrote:
It's a bit unfair to judge Threlkeld as a full back when he is clearly a midfield player first and foremost. Especially when half the time he's playing on the wrong wing.

What he brings is spirit, commitment, effort, bravery and energy to the team. Were he more offensive in approach he could be the next David Norris.

And while comparing current players with ones from the past does anybody else see John Matthews every time they look at Sarcevic?
I can understand what you're thinking. Nothing flashy but a good player who pops up everywhere. Same sort of build as well.

It's his build more than anything else: tallish and barrel-chested and his kit always seems a tad tight. I'm yet to see similar sweetness from his right foot or combative tackling and Sarcevic is the more mobile of the two by some distance. It's definitely a physical thing rather than a stylistic thing.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:04 am

harvetheslayer wrote:
Freathy wrote:
akagreengull wrote:
Innocent Egbunike wrote:
Freathy wrote:
Very long way to go yet.  24 points still to play for and Stevenage, Pompey and Luton won't drop nearly  as many as Argo over the final eight games.  It could well go down to the final game with Argo needing something at Grimsby.

Bowlax, Mr Freath. Your race is almost run this season, I'm afraid. Mind you, you'll be able to have a field day next season unless we see some money from nowhere for squad strengthening.

Old Freathers might need to up his gloomy inaccurate predictions to Argo losing 3 - 0 every game next season laugh
Imagine green Jimmy's lip is already of a quiver at the thought of manager and fans thinking there might need to be more investment to keep us in League 1. raised eyebrow


But then I forgot, there is always the FA cup windfall/Purrington million plus money tucked away, you know the money the board doesn't want to talk about. deadhorse

Yep, a brent budget means relegation is a given next season......IF we go up.  But one season in the 'big time' will be enough for the grateful brentophiles.


Yes the problem will be that gates will hardly average much higher at best and a lower league position will bring lower gates than this season. Hard to see where Adams goes with this Chairman and Gormless CEO


There's a strong likelihood that league 1 will be very top heavy with northern outposts too meaning not much travelling support at Home Park and regular long, expensive trips for us.
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beesrus



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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Fri Mar 24, 2017 2:12 pm

A low position in league 1 will almost certainly mean a lower average gate next season. Virtually everything depends on Adams and his rather ugly style of play. He's done a Brigadoon despite the clown at the helm.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sat Mar 25, 2017 5:16 pm

Stevenage draw (62 points after 39 games) and Luton lose (60 points from 39 games but now behind Blackpool on goal difference).

The maximum points total we now need is 83.

We currently have 72 with 8 games to play.

11 points or 4 wins will definitely, mathematically do it no matter what.

Realistically with 7 games to go the boot is now on the other foot...

If we win once Stevenage need 14 points (5 wins, 4 wins and 2 draws or better)
If we win twice Stevenage need 17 points (6 wins and 2 draws, 5 wins and 2 draws or better)
If we win thrice Stevenage need 7 wins and nothing else will do.

2 more wins needed with 8 to play, I reckon.



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tigertony

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sat Mar 25, 2017 10:26 pm

Bit bored tonight. Twists and turns .. what if at Fratters both Argyle and Pompous can guarantee promotion with a point each? Would be a good game!! lol
:greenrave:
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Mar 26, 2017 12:11 am

We could well be up by then.
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Freathy

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Mar 26, 2017 9:35 am

I still think this talk of automatic promotion is very premature. We're far too poor and inconsistent and we're not THAT far off 4th place. Realistically we're not going to get anything from today, or against Pompey in three weeks time. And we have two very tricky matches in between. Still think it could go right down to the final day.
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harvetheslayer

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Mar 26, 2017 9:58 am

Freathy wrote:
I still think this talk of automatic promotion is very premature. We're far too poor and inconsistent and we're not THAT far off 4th place.  Realistically we're not going to get anything from today, or against Pompey in three weeks time.  And we have two very tricky matches in between.  Still think it could go right down to the final day.

Nah we're up Freathy. Couldn't agree more that this is the worst assembled set of missfits ever to get promotion but bottom line is the rest of the teams are in the main worse.
Next season will be acid test in League 1.....I doubt more than 6 points is needed at worst to secure promotion
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tigertony

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Mar 26, 2017 12:17 pm

Sir Francis Drake wrote:
We could well be up by then.
I trust that if we are the Pompous players will applaud us on to the pitch as they sit in 4th place behind Stevenage. Laughing
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:29 am

Stevenage and Doncaster have a pretty tough run in whereas we have games against teams with nothing to play for. I think its more likely than not that we will now go up as Champions. Going up is a dead cert now IMO.
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VillageGreen

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:20 pm

Sir Francis Drake wrote:
Stevenage draw (62 points after 39 games) and Luton lose (60 points from 39 games but now behind Blackpool on goal difference).

The maximum points total we now need is 83.

We currently have 72 with 8 games to play.

11 points or 4 wins will definitely, mathematically do it no matter what.

Realistically with 7 games to go the boot is now on the other foot...

If we win once Stevenage need 14 points (5 wins, 4 wins and 2 draws or better)
If we win twice Stevenage need 17 points (6 wins and 2 draws, 5 wins and 2 draws or better)
If we win thrice Stevenage need 7 wins and nothing else will do.

2 more wins needed with 8 to play, I reckon.








I was reading elsewhere that Argyle could be promoted at Crawley, that is an early promotion by any stretch of the imagination ?. I was looking at Easter at the earliest, especially the Portsmouth and Newport County games.

If Argyle do get promoted at Crawley, then well done on that.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:11 pm

Realistically we have to lose 7 in a row, Pompey overtake us and Stevenage win 7 in a row too.

We might already have enough points and to all intents and purposes we are promoted even if we aren't quite over the line yet.

Winning at Doncaster was the equivalent to the Lincoln win under Sturrock when everybody went ballistic at the end even though we weren't mathematically certain to be promoted.

With Bet365 we are now 1/250 to be promoted (Donnie 1/2000) and 10/3 to be champions (Donnie 1/4).

But yes... Crawley is the first match at which we could be promoted.
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VillageGreen

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:39 am

Sir Francis Drake wrote:
Realistically we have to lose 7 in a row, Pompey overtake us and Stevenage win 7 in a row too.

We might already have enough points and to all intents and purposes we are promoted even if we aren't quite over the line yet.

Winning at Doncaster was the equivalent to the Lincoln win under Sturrock when everybody went ballistic at the end even though we weren't mathematically certain to be promoted.

With Bet365 we are now 1/250 to be promoted (Donnie 1/2000) and 10/3 to be champions (Donnie 1/4).

But yes... Crawley is the first match at which we could be promoted.

Next three games for the rivals.

Stevenage v Barnet
Hartlepool v Pompey
Luton v Blackpool

Barnet v Luton
Colchester v Stevenage
Pompey v Yeovil

Luton v Orient
Stevenage v Morecambe


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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:35 am

I think we still need 1 win to be absolutely sure of a play-off spot (although with some teams at the top playing each other that may not be the case).

Carlisle in 8th place can still get 78 points and we currently have 75.
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RegGreen



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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:09 pm

One win & a draw..then its nailed on
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:15 pm

Relax everyone it looks like us and Donny are going up, because the Guardian said so yesterday,  and that's good enough for me.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Apr 02, 2017 7:33 pm

Well we've lost the first of the 7 we need to lose not to go up.

We can't be promoted at Crawley now.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Apr 30, 2017 5:23 pm

Sir Francis Drake wrote:
I like this sort of thing.

Last season I ran a countdown to, what I confidently expected to be, our inevitable promotion. Well we all know what happened next and it turned out to be our route to the play-offs. No matter the stats don't change.

I went back over the previous 10 years and looked at how many points were scored by the Champs, last promoted team and last play-off spot. The points needed for each of these is probably higher than that required because in many cases they beat the team below by more than one point.

Anyway the points needed were:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

And, applying the same criteria for last year:

Champions: 99 points
Promoted: 85 points
Play-offs: 75 points

So last season all three important positions were achieved by higher than average points totals - not only was our implosion remarkable but so too was the successful pursuit by the teams behind us for so long.

Anyway I'd say win (Mean +2) points and we would be unlucky not to hit the target.

Meaning from where we currently are, 60 points with 17 to games to go, thats:

Champs ~ 91 points ~10W + 1D or equivalent
Promotion ~ 85 points ~ 8W +1D or equivalent
Play-offs ~ 68 points ~ 2W + 2D or equivalent

...in our last 17 games.

So 10 defeats and 7 wins might do it but is, I suggest, unlikely because it would give us 81 points and that was enough in only 5 of the last 11 seasons but it is right there on that coin toss.

Win every game and we are sure to be champions no matter what.

Turned out that 78 points was the target. Very low in a historical context.

(Fewer if Luton fail to win their last game.)
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Apr 30, 2017 5:39 pm

Where did we win our 78th point?

That was when we were promoted!
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tigertony

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:08 pm

Sir Francis Drake wrote:
Where did we win our 78th point?

That was when we were promoted!
Fratton Park
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun May 07, 2017 9:19 pm

It's now confirmed that 78 points was the ultimate target needed for promotion this season so we were actually promoted at Pompey in the end.

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun May 07, 2017 9:23 pm

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