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 How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?

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VillageGreen

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PostSubject: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:50 pm

With 17 games left to go, how many points would Argyle need to gain promotion.

I was chatting to someone in the Newmarket last night and they said Argyle could afford to lose ten games/win seven and still get promoted. The chap said 81 points should be enough to claim third place.

I reckon somewhere between 81 - 94 should be enough. I am not bothered about winning the title. Second place would be ideal, third place at a push.

The side have an easier home run-in and a slightly ''more difficult'' away run-in. Argyle have got to be looking at taking maximum points from all of the home games left, which would give them 24 points (84).

Looking at the away games, wins from the trips to Hartlepool, Mansfield, Crawley and Grimsby would give them 12 points (96). I would take draws at Luton, Wycombe, Doncaster, Portsmouth and Colchester (101)

I believe though that Argyle could afford to lose a couple of those away games (94 and second place).

8 Home:

Leyton Orient - win
Notts County - win
Carlisle - win
Blackpool - win
Morecambe - win
Accrington - win
Newport - win
Crewe - win

9 Away:

Hartlepool - win
Luton - draw or lose
Mansfield - win
Wycombe - draw or lose
Doncaster - draw or lose
Crawley - win
Portsmouth - draw or lose
Colchester - draw or lose
Grimsby - win
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akagreengull

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:07 pm

VillageGreen wrote:
With 17 games left to go, how many points would Argyle need to gain promotion.

I was chatting to someone in the Newmarket last night and they said Argyle could afford to lose ten games/win seven and still get promoted. The chap said 81 points should be enough to claim third place.

I reckon somewhere between 81 - 94 should be enough. I am not bothered about winning the title. Second place would be ideal, third place at a push.

The side have an easier home run-in and a slightly ''more difficult'' away run-in. Argyle have got to be looking at taking maximum points from all of the home games left, which would give them 24 points (84).

Looking at the away games, wins from the trips to Hartlepool, Mansfield, Crawley and Grimsby would give them 12 points (96). I would take draws at Luton, Wycombe, Doncaster, Portsmouth and Colchester (101)

I believe though that Argyle could afford to lose a couple of those away games (94 and second place).

8 Home:

Leyton Orient - win
Notts County - win



Carlisle - win
Blackpool - win
Morecambe - win
Accrington - win
Newport - win
Crewe - win

9 Away:

Hartlepool - win
Luton - draw or lose
Mansfield - win
Wycombe - draw or lose
Doncaster- lose
Crawley - win
Portsmouth - draw or lose
Colchester - draw or lose
Grimsby - win


If only it was that simple and predictable raised eyebrow
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Les Miserable

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:11 pm

1 more than 4th place, the rest is irrelevant.
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Hugh Watt
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:28 pm

True. But if last few seasons are anything to go by 85 points would do it.

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Angry

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:31 pm

aslong as we keep up with doncaster no matter what they do, then the rest will take care of itself playoff/automatic promotion wise. I want us to go up as champions so 90 plus maybe required.

Just aslong as we dont fall apart like the last two seasons ill be happy.


Last edited by Angry on Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:17 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:40 pm

I like this sort of thing.

Last season I ran a countdown to, what I confidently expected to be, our inevitable promotion. Well we all know what happened next and it turned out to be our route to the play-offs. No matter the stats don't change.

I went back over the previous 10 years and looked at how many points were scored by the Champs, last promoted team and last play-off spot. The points needed for each of these is probably higher than that required because in many cases they beat the team below by more than one point.

Anyway the points needed were:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

And, applying the same criteria for last year:

Champions: 99 points
Promoted: 85 points
Play-offs: 75 points

So last season all three important positions were achieved by higher than average points totals - not only was our implosion remarkable but so too was the successful pursuit by the teams behind us for so long.

Anyway I'd say win (Mean +2) points and we would be unlucky not to hit the target.

Meaning from where we currently are, 60 points with 17 to games to go, thats:

Champs ~ 91 points ~10W + 1D or equivalent
Promotion ~ 85 points ~ 8W +1D or equivalent
Play-offs ~ 68 points ~ 2W + 2D or equivalent

...in our last 17 games.

So 10 defeats and 7 wins might do it but is, I suggest, unlikely because it would give us 81 points and that was enough in only 5 of the last 11 seasons but it is right there on that coin toss.

Win every game and we are sure to be champions no matter what.


Last edited by Sir Francis Drake on Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:00 pm; edited 2 times in total
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akagreengull

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:52 pm

Sir Francis Drake wrote:
I like this sort of thing.

Last season I ran a countdown to, what I confidently expected to be, our inevitable promotion. Well we all know what happened next and it turned out to be our route to the play-offs. No matter the stats don't change.

I went back over the previous 10 years and looked at how many points were scored by the Champs, last promoted team and last play-off spot. The points needed for each of these is probably higher than that required because in many cases they beat the team below by more than one point.

Anyway the points needed were:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

And, applying the same criteria for last year:

Champions: 99 points
Promoted: 85 points
Play-offs: 75 points

geek :Zzzzzzz:
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Elias

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:54 pm

Remembering dagenham last season we have newport accriongton morecambe at home.........86 points required.
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VillageGreen

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:21 pm

Sir Francis Drake wrote:
I like this sort of thing.

Last season I ran a countdown to, what I confidently expected to be, our inevitable promotion. Well we all know what happened next and it turned out to be our route to the play-offs. No matter the stats don't change.

I went back over the previous 10 years and looked at how many points were scored by the Champs, last promoted team and last play-off spot. The points needed for each of these is probably higher than that required because in many cases they beat the team below by more than one point.

Anyway the points needed were:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

And, applying the same criteria for last year:

Champions: 99 points
Promoted: 85 points
Play-offs: 75 points

So last season all three important positions were achieved by higher than average points totals - not only was our implosion remarkable but so too was the successful pursuit by the teams behind us for so long.

Anyway I'd say win (Mean +2) points and we would be unlucky not to hit the target.

Meaning from where we currently are, 60 points with 17 to games to go, thats:

Champs ~ 91 points ~10W + 1D or equivalent
Promotion ~ 85 points ~ 8W +1D or equivalent
Play-offs ~ 68 points ~ 2W + 2D or equivalent

...in our last 17 games.

So 10 defeats and 7 wins might do it but is, I suggest, unlikely because it would give us 81 points and that was enough in only 5 of the last 11 seasons but it is right there on that coin toss.

Win every game and we are sure to be champions no matter what.


I reckon one or two teams in the Play-off areas could have a wobble. Ideally, the likes  Luton, Exeter and Portsmouth having a crisis would be excellent for Argyle. Carlisle seem to be doing an Argyle from last season at the moment.

Having said that, I believe that Luton and Portsmouth could be fighting it out for third spot come April onwards. Not too sure about Exeter though. They perhaps, along with Carlisle, Mansfield, Wycombe, Colchester (and one from Luton/Portsmouth) will end up battling it out for the final places. I can't see any of the teams in the Play-Off places (and from eight downwards) doing a Bristol Rovers and sneaking in there.

I do not envisage Argyle messing it all up now, it would be tragic if it were to happen. I have confidence that Argyle will claim second place. If by the time there is only ten to eleven games left, you have to hope Argyle could be well clear of fourth place, possibly by 16 or more points. That would be a comfortable place to be in and all the pressure will be on the teams below. As for Doncaster, they will probably win the title.

Of course, the above is all speculation and hearsay, but it will certainly make for an interesting run-in to the end of the season.

Tuesday Night Fixtures

Newport V Grimsby

Carlisle V Doncaster

Crewe V Wycombe

Luton V Hartlepool

Mansfield V Accrington

Morecambe V Barnet

Colchester V Crawley

Notts County V Exeter

Portsmouth V Blackpool

Stevenage V Cheltenham

Yeovil V Cambridge
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:35 pm

There's no sense in predicting much. It wasn't long ago that Exeter were bottom of the league then they go and win 7 in a row and are on the edge of a promotion place. Who was predicting that?

Last year nobody, aside from Freathy, was predicting that Argyle would screw up so badly: the team top at Christmas nearly always gets promoted automatically... It didn't happen.

That's why I prefer "we are here... get these results and we'll probably be here" scenarioes.

But as I said 2 points over the average (and I'd already skewed the equation by taking the 3rd place total rather than that needed to beat 4th) and we'd be desperately unlucky not to go up and that's 8 wins and a draw or 1.5 points per game if you prefer to look at it that way.
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Innocent Egbunike

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:12 pm

9 wins from 17 = 87 points = Pissing it in, pulling a bus
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:04 am

Even after last night it is 3 teams from 5 when we have a game in hand on Luton and a 9 point gap to Pompey. None of those sides are threatening to go on a run of 3 points. Mid table form from now on in will be fine. Nae bother.
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Freathy

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Wed Feb 15, 2017 8:12 am

I seriously don't think automatic promotion is possible for this 'team'
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sat Feb 18, 2017 5:21 pm

We're up to 61 points from 32 games. Pretty good so far.

If we need 85 points to go up then there's 24 points from 15 games to go: 8W; 7W + 3D; 6W +6D; 5W + 9D.
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:26 pm

I had Mansfield down as the late runners but they got stuffed yesterday. Excretia , after 7 wins, have managed 2 points from 3 games. I'd be more concerned if the top 7 - 9 were grouped up but the cushion we have is a good foundation for the remaining games. Next Saturday is a big game. Avoid defeat!
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Mon Feb 20, 2017 1:34 am

We have 5 away games against top 9 clubs: Pompey, Luton, Donny, Wycombe, Mansfield.

We have 1 home game against a top 9 club: Carlisle.

There's our season right there.

It would appear that our run in is tough but on the other hand we have only 6 out of 15 games against top 9 teams so maybe not...

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:48 pm

9 more wins. That's all, just 9 more wins.

Not beyond the realms of possibility. This is Argyle however, so they'll probably get 8 and snatch a draw from the jaws of victory in one other, end up in the play offs and lose to whoever they end up playing.

Sadly, some people will still think of that as progress.
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:30 pm

Wycombe losing at the mo! Thats their game in hand over most clubs - not us though. Anusworth has a touchline ban.
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:32 am

86 I reckon will complete the job
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:23 pm

Based on 85 then Pompous and Lootown need about 11 wins from 14. Excretia need 12 wins from 14. That is monumental form but not impossible. Dave Smith's side won 8 on the bounce and recently the 6-toes did 7 wins but its a big ask. So unless we really blow it it's looking OK. This is Argyle though!!!
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:55 pm

Pompous, Lootown and Anusworth. TT nailing it again with the hilarious bantz...
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:25 pm

85 points is the 11 year average points total for the 3rd place team plus an arbitrary 2 points to be on the safeish side.

It's worth noting that the 4th placed team could have been several points behind the team finishing 3rd and that the 83 point average is a mid-point of sorts. Fewer might do. Potentially quite a lot fewer.
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Sir Francis Drake

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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:40 pm

Here's the points for the 4th placed team:

2016 - Accrington - 85
2015 - Wycombe - 84
2014 - Fleetwood - 76
2013 - Burton - 76
2012 - Southend - 83
2011 - Shrewsbury - 79
2010 - Morecambe - 73
2009 - Bury - 78
2008 - Stockport - 82
2007 - MKD - 84

Accrington tied with Bristol Rovers on points.

The average 4th placed team over the last 10 years "scored" 80 points but in 2010 74 pts would have been enough to get promoted.

So... 81 points might do. Then add as many as you feel necessary for safety's sake.

We'd be very unlikely not to go up on 85 but it is possible because it happened to Accrington last year.
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:12 am

charleymouse wrote:
Pompous, Lootown and Anusworth. TT nailing it again with the hilarious bantz...
I do try and bring some humour just for you. Laughing If you spread your information gathering just a little wider study you will have noticed that those phrases have been used for months elsewhere . Banana
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PostSubject: Re: How many points would Argyle need to gain promotion ?   Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:29 am

tigertony wrote:
charleymouse wrote:
Pompous, Lootown and Anusworth. TT nailing it again with the hilarious bantz...
I do try and bring some humour just for you. Laughing   If you spread your information gathering just a little wider  study   you will have noticed that those phrases have been used for months elsewhere . Banana

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